2013 Bill James Projections - David Ortiz

In honor of Big Papi's 37th birthday, I thought I would start off the 2013 Bill James projections series with Red Sox Nation's favorite designated hitter.

2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI

2011: 146 games, .309 BA, .398 OBP, .554 SLG, 29 HR, 96 RBI

2012 projection: 150 games, .277 BA, .378 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 104 RBI

2012: 90 games, .318 BA, .415 OBP, .611 SLG, 23 HR, 60 RBI

2013 projection: 147 games, .283 BA, .386 OBP, .533 SLG, 32 HR, 103 RBI

Obviously David Ortiz's season was marred by his achilles injury, and he was only able to take the field for ninety games - sixty fewer times than James projected. One of the things that James and his team are careful to note is that they cannot predict injuries, and I think it's safe to assume that if Ortiz had played out the string, fatigue might have brought his spectacular average, OBP, and SLG numbers down closer to their projection.

As you all know, Big Papi recently signed a two-year, $26 million contract to keep him in Boston through 2014.  If he can live up to the power numbers projected in the 2013 Bill James Handbook, the Red Sox will have gotten their money's worth.  Fans, of course, will just be happy to see the ever-jovial lefty back in a Red Sox uniform, hopefully healthy, for the 2013 campaign.

2013 projections - coming soon!

This is typically the time of year that I do a series of posts on Bill James' projections for the following season's Red Sox players.  Normally I would do one post each for infielders, outfielders, starters, and relievers, but this year I'm going to go about things a little differently.

As you can see, I received my copy of the Bill James Handbook [2013] in the mail about a week and a half ago, but I've been putting off writing about the contents. Why? A little because I've been a bad, lazy blogger since the World Series wrapped up, but mostly because so much of the 2013 Red Sox roster is still a mystery.

On that note, I've decided to do the projections post player by player, so that I can start them sooner rather than later. There will also be more opportunity for commentary and discussion if each post focuses on a single player.  That said, look for (hopefully) daily posts starting this weekend, and thanks for reading!

Race for Big Papi

Just when it was looking like the re-sign David Ortiz campaign would be almost as long and painful as this year's political campaigns (no matter your ideological leanings, if you live in Massachusetts you NEVER want to see another ad for Scott Brown or Elizabeth Warren again), the Texas Rangers have expressed interest in the lefthanded DH, and the Red Sox are scrambling to get a deal done.

The Red Sox have until midnight today to negotiate exclusively with Ortiz, but only until 5pm to extend him a qualifying $13.3 million dollar offer that would ensure them a draft pick if he were to sign elsewhere. I think we can be confident that the minimum offer will be extended, and also reasonably confident that Big Papi will remain with the Red Sox.

I'm sure Ortiz and his agents are thrilled at the Rangers showing interest - not because he has a burning desire to move to Texas, but because it will give him some leverage to get a multi-year deal done with the Red Sox.

After a decade with the Sox, it's unlikely that the soon-to-be 37-year-old slugger wants to uproot his family and leave such a devoted fanbase, not to mention the fact that he's unlikely to see the kind of money or length that he's looking for from any team, given his age and recent history with injury.

I will be absolutely blown away if the Red Sox and Ortiz don't come to terms, and given the newfound Texan threat, I think it will happen soon.