Sunday, November 18, 2012

2013 Bill James Projections - David Ortiz

In honor of Big Papi's 37th birthday, I thought I would start off the 2013 Bill James projections series with Red Sox Nation's favorite designated hitter.

2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI
2011: 146 games, .309 BA, .398 OBP, .554 SLG, 29 HR, 96 RBI
2012 projection: 150 games, .277 BA, .378 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 104 RBI
2012: 90 games, .318 BA, .415 OBP, .611 SLG, 23 HR, 60 RBI
2013 projection: 147 games, .283 BA, .386 OBP, .533 SLG, 32 HR, 103 RBI

Obviously David Ortiz's season was marred by his achilles injury, and he was only able to take the field for ninety games - sixty fewer times than James projected. One of the things that James and his team are careful to note is that they cannot predict injuries, and I think it's safe to assume that if Ortiz had played out the string, fatigue might have brought his spectacular average, OBP, and SLG numbers down closer to their projection.

As you all know, Big Papi recently signed a two-year, $26 million contract to keep him in Boston through 2014.  If he can live up to the power numbers projected in the 2013 Bill James Handbook, the Red Sox will have gotten their money's worth.  Fans, of course, will just be happy to see the ever-jovial lefty back in a Red Sox uniform, hopefully healthy, for the 2013 campaign.

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