2011 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Rotation

Yesterday we established that the 2010 version of the Red Sox performed at a poorer than expected level because of pitching, and not (exclusively) injuries. This was particularly surprising because the rotation was the one thing we all figured we wouldn't have to worry about: Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, and Matsuzaka - and we even had Wakefield, who, despite his age and lack of consistency, is a hell of a sixth man.

However, there were injuries to Beckett and Matsuzaka, and Lackey was rather less productive than we'd collectively hoped (I suppose you could say he was LACKing - get it?!?). The bullpen was a volitile mess, especially if you look at their performance without counting the stats from Bard and Paps (who had his worst season, but still superior to most relievers).

So what's in store for next year? No one can know for sure, but the Bill James Handbook at least offers predictions based on math I don't really understand, rather than total guesses pulled out of thin air.

So, without further ado, here are James' predictions for members of the presumptive pitchers for the 2011 Sox (accompanied by their 2010 numbers):

Josh Beckett:2010: 6-6, 21 starts, 127.2 IP, 5.78 ERA
2011 prediction: 10-9, 26 starts, 168 IP, 3.86 ERA
Beckett's lost season was a HUGE part of the reason the Sox missed out on the playoffs in 2010, and even a reasonable bounce back like the one James is predicting would give the Red Sox a fantastic edge.

Clay Buchholz:2010: 17-7, 28 starts, 173.2 IP, 2.33 ERA
2011 prediction: 13-9, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.54 ERA
I'm going to go on record here and guess that James is underestimating Clay. The dominance we saw last season was not a fluke, and I'm confident Buchholz can be consistent in 2011. There's a reason Theo hasn't accepted any trade offers for Clay, and what we saw last year was just the beginning.

John Lackey:2010: 14-11, 33 starts, 215 IP, 4.40 ERA
2011 prediction: 13-12, 33 starts, 227 IP, 3.89 ERA
When I actually saw Lackey's 2010 stats, I have to confess to being a bit surprised that he was such an innings-eater. If he can live up to these predictions as the third/fourth starter, I will be content.

Daisuke Matsuzaka:2010: 9-6, 25 starts, 153.2 IP, 4.69 ERA
2011 prediction: 10-9, 27 starts, 173 IP, 3.85 ERA
Again, I'll take it. No, Matsuzaka has never been the ace we thought we were getting way back in the offseason of 2007, but (aside from his lost 2009) he's been more than adequate for the back of the rotation, and I expect he'll continue to be consistent(ly infuriating to watch).

Jon Lester:2010: 19-9, 32 starts, 208 IP, 3.25 ERA
2011 prediction: 14-9, 31 starts, 204 IP, 3.53 ERA
I think Lester will do better than this, especially if he can figure out how to avoid the awful April we've come to expect from him. James badly underestimated Lester in his predictions for 2010, and I think he's cut the southpaw short again this year.

Tim Wakefield:2010:4-10, 19 starts, 130 IP 5.34 ERA
2011 predictions: 6-6, 14 starts, 115 IP, 4.07 ERA
If Wake gets to start at all in 2011, it will be spot starts here and there. The knuckleballer's career is winding down, and though it's hard to say goodbye, this season will likely be his last.

I'm going to leave the relievers out of this equation for now, since roles and such will be in flux, and the Sox bullpen is likely going to see some serious revamping before Opening Day (which is MUCH too far away). But, if the members of the rotation listed above can match their projections (and if one or two of them *cough*Buchholz*Lester*cough* can exceed them), I think 2011 will be a much more productive year for the Sox, at least pitching-wise.

Surprising shortcomings of the 2010 Red Sox

According to the rankings in the 2011 Bill James Handbook, the 2010 Boston Red Sox had the third best offense in the American League. The only offense that performed better than Boston was their AL East competition, the New York Yankees (Tampa Bay came in third, not shockingly).

The Sox had more doubles than any other team in the AL, with 358, and they had the second-most home runs with 211 (98 at home, 113 on the road). They had the second most RBIs (782), behind those pesky Yanks, who drove in 823. Perhaps most interestingly, the Red Sox blew all other teams out of the collective water in the total bases category, collecting 2546 total bags, fifty more than the next highest total.

Despite missing the offense of the prodigious Youkilis, the Red Sox had a productive year scoring runs.

So with such an impressive offensive pedigree, how did the Red Sox miss out on the playoffs? The easy answer is, of course, the barrage of injuries suffered by the home nine, but the numbers tell a different story. Obviously, the Red Sox scored more than enough runs to be a playoff-caliber team, and yet somehow they did not manage to get there.

The explanation, according to James, is simple: baseball has two sides, offense and defense, and the Red Sox were pretty terrible at the latter. Remember way back during the 2009-2010 offseason, when Theo promised us a run-prevention machine? Yeah, those claims are pretty laughable, because the Handbook's advanced stats rate the Red Sox defense as the third worst in the American League, only better than the Angels and Royals.

However, most people would agree that the single most important asset to a successful ball club is pitching, and for all of the praise the Boston rotation garnered before the season, it certainly didn't live up to expectations. The Sox pitching staff was the fourth worst in the AL in 2010, better than cellar dwellers Cleveland, Baltimore, and Kansas City. Red Sox pitchers gave up 679 earned runs, had an ERA of 4.20, and gave the most free passes in the league, with 580 walks.

All of these things together led to a dissapointing season. If the once-vaunted rotation had lived up to even one tenth of its potential, we could have had October baseball. But, for whatever reason, they couldn't. The Red Sox offense - which, if you recall, was everyone's #1 worry last offseason - was championship caliber, and the other facets of the team couldn't keep up.

Tomorrow, we'll take a look at James' predictions for 2011, and see if the coming season has a happier ending in store... Hopefully it at least has fewer casts, boots, surgeries, and contusions.

Sabermetric Tidbits

I stumbled upon MLBNetwork's League Leaders, and I have to say, it was quite an eye opener. I won't get into the merits of the various statistics, because that's a whole other post, but for those of you that like this stuff, here are some of the more interesting tidbits from last night's show. (All stats are as of Monday morning.)


* When will Kevin Youkilis start to get recognition as the amazing player he is? He was in the top five in a lot of offensive categories, including runs scored (most in the league), OPS, and OPS+ (first in the league). I think most Sox fans see Youk as a great asset, but most of us don't see him as in the same category as a Mark Teixeira, Josh Hamilton, or Evan Longoria. He is on par with those players, and ahead of many of them in important ways. Let's show Youk some LOVE!

* Old friend Justin Masterson is tops in the league with 173 ground ball outs. We saw that firsthand in Cleveland last week, but I don't begrudge Masty some success. Baseball's never seen a nicer guy.

* The Red Sox are third in MLB against lefthanded pitching, and first in the American League. They also come in first in arguably the most important offensive category: runs scored. Unfortunately, the Yankees and Rays are second and third, so this catfight for the division isn't going to end any time soon.

* Joe West may have had a point way back after Opening Day.. Not about the Sox and Yankees being a "disgrace to the game," but that their games are just a bit lengthy. The Red Sox have the longest average game times of any team in baseball, with 3:07, and the Yanks come in at just a minute shorter with 3:06. It's not mistake that two of the best teams take the longest to play, however, and someone should inform West.

* To go along with length, David Oritz is tops in pitches seen per plate appearance, making the pitcher toss an average of 4.53 pitches every time he steps to the dish. Similarly, Dustin Pedroia has seen more pitches in 2010 than any other player, with 1409, more than 20 more pitches than his next closest competitor. Of course, seeing a lot of pitches is part of making every at-bat a battle, and wearing down starters quickly in order to get to the inferior pitching in the bullpen.

* For all the clutch hitting woes experienced by the Red Sox early in the season, they've obviously bounced back, led by third baseman Adrian Belte. Beltre leads the league in batting average with runners in scoring position, batting .392 in such situations.

* I know we were all freaking out about holding baserunners on, but in the American League, a high success rate for opposing teams corresponds with a good record, and vice versa. The two teams who are best at controlling the running game are Toronto and Oakland, in fourth and third place, respectively. The three teams who let opponents run wild on the basepaths are all fighting for first, in the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels (in that order).

* As for that heralded "run prevention" thing? Marco Scutaro is tied for first in most outs recorded, with 221, while Captain Intangibles himself, Derek Jeter, must content himself with second place. Maybe those unnecessary pirouettes make him sleep better at night.

Yes, I know statistics aren't everything. They are, however, an important part in the evaluative process. I know I can't get enough information about my team, and I know some of you are the same way. I can highly recommend MLBNetwork's League Leaders if this stuff interests you: Monday nights at 10PM... You can bet I'll be watching!