Hindsight is 20/20 (Pitching)

Earlier this month, I did an entry comparing the Bill James projections of position player performances to their actual numbers. As always, James was correct more often than not. I had a reader request after that post that I do one concerning our pitchers, and I agreed to - once the playoffs were over. Alas, I would much rather be typing up Red Sox ALCS preview, but this will have to do:

STARTERS

Josh Beckett:
Projection: 29 games, 189 IP, 21 HR, 176 SO, 3.57 ERA, 13-8 record
Actual: 32, 212.1, 25, 199, 3.86, 17-6

Despite the panic in Red Sox Nation over Josh's late-season performance, he actual over-achieved in virtually every category except HR and ERA, and those were close. While Lester may have overtaken him as the ace, he remains a top-tier pitcher.

Jon Lester:
Projection: 32 games, 212 IP, 19 HR, 168 SO, 4.02 ERA, 12-11 record
Actual: 32, 203.1, 20, 225, 3.41, 15-8

Lester emerged as a true top of the rotation guy this year, breaking the franchise single season strikeouts record for a southpaw, and becoming the dominating force he was projected to be. Obviously, be smashed James' SO, ERA, and W-L projections, but there was some worry that his innings from the 2008 campaign might adversely affect him... Clearly, that wasn't the case.

Daisuke Matsuzaka:
Projection: 30 games, 184 IP, 17 HR, 174 SO, 3.58 ERA, 12-8 record
Actual: 12, 59.1, 10, 54, 5.76, 4-6

Obviously, James couldn't have predicted Daisuke's terrible offseason training regimen, which sent him to the WBC and then Spring Training completely out of shape and unable to perform. This, of course, resulted in a lost season from the Japanese enigma. However, the guy we saw in September was encouraging: here's hoping he actually does his workouts this winter.

Tim Wakefield:
Projection: 28 games, 160 IP, 21 HR, 107 SO, 3.91 ERA, 10-8 record
Actual: 21, 129.2, 12, 72, 4.58, 11-5

Knuckleballs are hard to predict on the field, and even more difficult to predict over the course of a season. Wake had an amazing first half, going to his first All-Star game, and let's not forget that gem he threw in April, which could be pointed to as an early turning point for the team. Though his second-half problems are becoming a habit, I'd like to see the team give him another year, especially for $4 million.

(Clay Buchholz was not listed in the 2009 Bill James Handbook)

RELIEVERS

Manny Delcarmen:
Projection: 71 games, 81 IP, 3.44 ERA, 6-3 record, 1 save
Actual: 64, 59.2, 4.53, 5-2, 0

MDC had a great start, lest you forget, but his second half slide was particularly bad, as he melted down in several important situations. People who would know (Curt Schilling, for one) often say that Delcarmen has some of the best stuff on the team, and could be a closer on many teams... It just doesn't look like he has the makeup - except maybe in the National League.

Hideki Okajima:
Projection: 61 games, 61 IP, 3.19 ERA, 5-2 record, 0 saves
Actual: 68, 61, 3.39, 6-0, 0

Oki was what we have come to expect: a quietly above-average pitcher who can get right- and left-handers out with nearly equal efficiency, who can come in to get a single out or go two innings. His consistency is a luxury that many teams don't have. Who's the throw-in now, Daisuke?

Takashi Saito:
Projection: 50 games, 52 IP, 3.09 ERA, 4-2 record, 20 saves
Actual: 56, 55.2, 2.43, 3-3, 2 saves

This one is more interesting: Saito's projections were based off what he would do if he were to stay the closer for the Dodgers. Clearly, when he came to Boston, his role changed: he didn't save games unless Paps wasn't available, and after Billy Wags came to town, forget it. However, his ERA was excellent for someone of his age and cost, and he exceeded expectations (numerically), even within the AL East.

Ramon Ramirez:
Projection:66 games, 67 IP, 3.74 ERA, 4-4 record, 1 save
Actual: 70, 69.2, 2.84, 7-4, 0

Again, Ramirez's projections were based on the assumption that he would be playing in Kansas City, yet he STILL exceeded all expectations across the board, even with the new pressures of a pennant race and a city that blows everything baseball-related out of proportions. Thanks, Coco!

Jonathan Papelbon:
Projection: 64 games, 71 IP, 2.04 ERA, 5-3 record, 41 saves
Actual: 66, 68, 1.85, 1-1, 38

Despite some shakiness in the first half, while he was "changing his mechanics," Paps had an extremely good year. His ERA was awesome, and despite the heart attacks, he converted his save opportunities more often than not. However, his most impressive stat is probably the combined 5,000 years he took off the lives of Sox fans everywhere.

(Daniel Bard and Billy Wagner are not listed in the 2009 Bill James Handbook)

Looking on the bright side...?

Six good, or at least vaguely humorous, notes related to the Sox loss today:

1.) I could easily become a fan of new Sox reliever Ramon Ramirez.  You know, the guy we got from Kansas City in return for the center fielder who hits them game winning home runs.  Though Ramirez didn't win us the game, he kept that outcome within the realm of possibility by bailing out Delcarmen with a 1-6-3 double play in the eighth.  Ramirez pitched 1 1/3 innings and allowed one hit and no runs.

2.) NESN needs to be careful about its cameras following Dustin Pedroia after he makes an out at the plate.  Yesterday, the home viewers clearly watched him mouth, "Fuck you, ump! Piece of shit! What the fuck?!" directly after he struck out in the eighth.  Perhaps thinking they might avoid such antics today, the cameraman decided to avoid the close up directly after the out, and waited to show the feisty second baseman until he was safely back in the dugout.  Fail.  Pedroia dropped the most vehement f-bomb I've ever [not] heard, as soon as the camera closed in on him.  Watch out Red Sox Nation, or the FCC might be closing down our game feed.

3.) How ridiculous is Kevin Youkilis?  The Goatee went 3-for-4 with a walk today, improving to 8-for-11 in three games.  That is a .727 average.  I know that Youk has to come back to earth eventually, but he sure is fun to watch in the meantime.  The only bad thing about Youk's day was the timing of his hits... if he could have moved one to the ninth-the only time he was retired all game-the outcome might have been different.

4.) Jason Bay hit an RBI triple.  Any triple is rare, and I was thrilled for Bay, but to be honest, my favorite three-bagger of all time had to be David Ortiz chugging around the bases near the end of last season.

5.) In sort-of related news, I was watching the first half of the game on ESPN Gamecast in my Constitutional Law class, and when Matsuzaka gave up the first homerun, the guy next to me looked over and sighed.  When he gave up the second, I swore.  My Sox fan neighbor looked over and pulled a Pedroia, only the sound wasn't muted in class.  I'm pretty sure the Professor thought we were upset about the case we were briefing.

6.) This video.