2012 Bill James Projections - Red Sox Bullpen

Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow, so I figured I'd better wrap up this segment - with a few disclaimers: despite the fact that we now know Daniel Bard is preparing to be a starter, he will be listed here, as James projected his numbers as a reliever; this is also true of Alfredo Aceves, who has expressed interest in starting again but might be more valuable in the bullpen.

RHP Alfredo Aceves:
2011: 10-2, 114 IP, 42 BB, 80 SO, 2.61 ERA, 2 saves
2012 projection: 8-5, 118 IP, 43 BB, 85 SO, 3.43 ERA, 0 saves
Aceves had some success last season as a starter, but when he was plugged into the bullpen he couldn't get back out.  He has made it clear that he prefers starting, and with the glaring holes in the rotation, he just might get his chance - it looks like James projected him as more of a starter, anyway.

RHP Matt Albers:
2011 projection: 3-5, 73 IP, 34 BB, 51 SO, 4.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 4-4, 64.2 IP, 31 BB, 68 SO, 4.73 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-4, 65 IP, 30 BB, 49 SO, 4.57 ERA, 0 saves
Albers was an acceptable middle reliever for the Sox last season, and it looks like we can expect a comparable performance this season. It's not a fantastic line, but there's a reason that middle relievers aren't closers or starters.


RHP Andrew Bailey:
2011 projection: 4-2, 58 IP, 21 BB, 56 SO, 2.64 ERA, 30 saves
2011: 0-4, 41.2 IP, 12 BB, 41 SO, 3.24 ERA, 24 saves
2012 projection: 4-2, 50 IP, 14 BB, 48 SO, 2.34 ERA, 26 saves
Bailey slightly underperformed last season with the A's, but James is predicting a rebound in 2012.  A word of caution: James' numbers are calculated for Oakland, where Bailey pitched in the AL West... it's possible we see a backslide.  We knew we were saying goodbye to near-certainty in the ninth when Paps shipped off to Philly, but hopefully Bailey can live up to his reputation.

RHP Daniel Bard:
2011 projection: 6-3, 76 IP, 34 BB, 90 SO, 2.72 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 2-9, 73 IP, 24 BB, 74 SO, 3.33 ERA, 1 save
2012 projection: 6-2, 70 IP, 25 BB, 79 SO, 2.31 ERA, 2 saves
We know Bard is coming into camp to be stretched out as a starter, and if he can be half as effective in the rotation as he's been in the eighth inning, that will be one less thing to worry about there - but who will fill the eighth?

RHP Michael Bowden: 
2011: 0-0, 20 IP, 11 BB, 17 SO, 4.05 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 2-2, 30 IP, 12 BB, 24 SO, 4.20 ERA, 0 saves
Bowden is a mystery here. The reason he hasn't been shipped off in a trade is because no other teams know enough about him to risk giving up something of value.  This line suggests a middling performance out of the pen, and if he can eat up some innings, that would be helpful.


RHP Bobby Jenks:
2011 projection: 3-2, 49 IP, 17 BB, 48 SO, 3.12 ERA, 32 saves
2011: 2-2, 15.2 IP, 13 BB, 17 SO, 6.32 ERA, 0 saves
[No 2012 projection]
I'm not sure why there are no numbers for Jenks in 2012 - James does projections for players who have said they're retiring (hello, JD Drew) and those who have been injured far longer than Jenks (like Daisuke Matsuzaka).  In any case, Jenks has already arrived in camp, looking much fitter than last year, so perhaps we'll see him slide into that eighth inning vacancy if he gets his pitching act together.


RHP Mark Melancon:
2011 projection: 2-2, 37 IP, 16 BB, 36 SO, 3.89 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 8-4, 74.1 IP, 26 BB, 66 SO, 2.78 ERA, 20 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 75 IP, 31 BB, 71 SO, 3.84 ERA, 13 saves
These numbers are projections for Houston, so it stands to reason they might not be as impressive in Boston.  I don't know much about Melancon, so I'm excited to see his performance in Spring Training.


LHP Andrew Miller:
2011 projection: 3-5, 65 IP, 43 BB, 54 SO, 5.68 ERA, 0 saves
2011: 6-3, 65 IP, 41 BB, 50 SO, 5.54 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-5, 70 IP, 47 BB, 58 SO, 5.40 ERA, 0 saves
 Miller was right on his projected numbers last season, so it stands to reason that could happen again. It's not an impressive line, but every bullpen needs a mop-up guy, right?

LHP Franklin Morales:
[No 2011 projection]
2011: 1-2, 46.1 IP, 19 BB, 42 SO, 3.69 ERA, 0 saves
2012 projection: 3-3, 51 IP, 26 BB, 42 SO, 4.41 ERA, 0 saves
Morales has a good BB/SO ratio, and acceptable innings and ERA - he's another one to watch in the next few weeks.


Other options for the pen who don't have numbers in James' Handbook include LHP Felix Doubront, RHP Clayton Mortenson, RHP Stolmy Pimentel, and RHP Junichi Tazawa.  Doubront is intriguing since there aren't too many lefties on the above list - but he came to camp last year out of shape.  Tazawa could be a starter or come out of the pen - or not make the team at all. He's finally coming back from Tommy John surgery, so it will be interesting to see how he performs.  The bullpen is in a state of transition from end to end: for the first time in years we don't have a set closer or eighth inning an or long reliever or anything else. A challenge for Manager Bobby Valentine, and we'll get to see this started tomorrow!

Five-Minute Musings: Jenks, Paps, Greinke, Wheeler, and Hall

I know I have been terrible at updating this week... in my defense, it's finals AND I'm trying to pack up my whole room because I'm going abroad next semester. But I do have five free minutes this fine morning, which I will use to debrief the last week in Red Sox Nation (scope expanded due to the offseason).

1. Bobby Jenks to the Red Sox. The bullpen sure looks a hell of a lot better than it did before this signing, as we now harbor three power lefties, all potential closers. Jenks is a solid player, even if his ERA was up pretty high last season (4.44), and he provides much needed security in a bullpen that was a bigger hindrance to the Sox than the injuries last season. (I know, you don't believe me - but we lost too many games as a direct result of a faulty 'pen.) Jenks' career line can be found here at baseball-reference.

2. The status of Jonathan Papelbon. Everyone is freaking out, talking about how this trade means Paps is on the trading block, that we can't possibly keep three possible closers in the bullpen, and that somehow this is some great catastrophe. Calm. Down. Paps was always on the block for this year, because he will be a free agent next offseason. Cinco-ocho has been boasting about how he wants to "set the market for closers" for years now, and Theo never had any intention of paying him. If the presence of Jenks means we can get some impact talent for Paps (now or at the deadline) beyond the draft picks if we let him walk as a FA, I can support that. It's a smart move, and Theo knows what he's doing.

3. Zack Greinke to the Brewers. This is fantastic news for the Red Sox, as it means that a great pitcher is (a) not going to New York, Tampa, or another division rival, and (b) that he'll be in the National League. Honestly, if Greinke had ended up in New York, I wouldn't have been too worried, as his struggle with anxiety would not have boded well in a high-pressure place like the Bronx. However, this is the second time in a week that one of the game's premier pitchers jumped ship from the AL to the NL. Though the Sox play both the Phils and Brewers in interleague this season, I'll take it... the fewer top-tier pitchers my boys have to face, the better.

4. Dan Wheeler signs a one-year deal. The Rhode Island native professes to be thrilled that he'll be playing in Boston next season, even though he's making the switch from our division rival, the Rays. At least he'll have some familiar faces around, what with Carl Crawford (for whom Wheeler had nothing but praise), and the fact that his family still lives in the Ocean State. Wheeler has a 3.84 ERA in his career, and will most likely take the role of primary middle-innings guy in the bullpen.

5. Bill Hall is headed to Houston. Yes, Brad Mills (former Red Sox bench coach, and close friend of Terry Francona's) will finally get to enjoy the Bill Hall experience. Hall will be the club's starting second-baseman. I understand that, as a rule, a starter is more valuable than a sub, but the Red Sox would have been completely lost last season without Hall's super-utility abilities. The man played seven out of the nine positions (everything but first base and catcher), including a flawless inning pitched, and you just know he could have (and would have) played first base if he had been asked. Hall was a classy guy, always willing to fill in where he was needed, and I'm glad he's getting the chance to start if that's what he wants.


That's all for today, folks, but I am heading home for winter break tomorrow, so posting should be much more consistent for the next month or so. As always, thanks for reading!