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2011 projection: 10-11, 29 starts, 188 IP, 4.21 ERA, 52 BB, 102 SO
2011: 14-9, 31 starts, 182 IP, 4.75 ERA, 46 BB, 104 SO
2012 projection: 10-11, 31 starts, 190 IP, 4.22 ERA, 49 BB, 105 SO
2012: 10-12, 31 starts, 176.1 IP, 4.59 ERA, 44 BB, 107 SO
2013 projection: 9-11, 31 starts, 178 IP, 4.50 ERA, 45 BB, 102 SO
2013: 13-8, 29 starts, 177 IP, 4.32 ERA, 42 BB, 142 SO
2014 projection: 9-11, 30 starts, 186 IP, 4.31 ERA, 45 BB, 117 SO
2014: 15-13, 31 starts, 204.2 IP, 3.43 ERA, 41 BB, 129 SO
2015 projection: 11-13, 32 starts, 209 IP, 4.00 ERA, 45 BB, 132 SO
It's curious to me that Bill James and his team project Rick Porcello's ERA will go up significantly next season, considering he's consistently improved in that area every season since 2010.
Porcello is a member of the much-debated and sometimes-maligned 2015 Red Sox rotation. The group is often referred to as a staff of number 3 starters, but I think that's unfair. Is Rick Porcello a bona fide ace? Absolutely not [yet]. But he could certainly be a solid number two.
Rick Porcello was an important member of the vaunted Detroit Tigers staff for the last few seasons, and while his contributions were sometimes forgotten behind those of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, there were times when Porcello outperformed them both.
All of this, plus the fact that Porcello is just 26 years old, makes him a fantastic addition to the Red Sox. The downside is that he's a year out from free agency, and apparently uninterested in discussing an extension.
But with a potential payday on the horizon, the Red Sox will be getting a young, talented pitcher with an incredibly large incentive for giving the 2015 season everything he has in the tank.
I think James' projections for Porcello are underestimating him. Despite the naysayers and the "We should have signed Shields" whiners, I expect big things from Porcello this season.
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