2015 Bill James Projections: Justin Masterson

Source

2010: 6-13, 29 starts, 180 IP, 4.70 ERA, 73 BB, 140 SO
2011 projection: 9-10, 26 starts, 175 IP, 4.11 ERA, 73 BB, 147 SO
2011: 12-10, 33 starts, 216 IP, 3.21 ERA, 65 BB, 158 SO
2012 projection: 11-12, 32 starts, 205 IP, 3.82 ERA, 70 BB, 164 SO
2012: 11-15, 34 starts, 206.1 IP, 4.93 ERA, 88 BB, 159 SO
2013 projection: 10-12, 34 starts, 204 IP, 4.01 ERA, 79 BB, 160 SO
2013: 14-10, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.45 ERA, 76 BB, 195 SO
2014 projection: 10-12, 30 starts, 198 IP, 3.82 ERA, 78 BB, 165 SO
2014: 7-9, 25 starts, 128.2 IP, 5.88 ERA,  69 BB, 116 SO
2015 projection: 9-13, 31 starts, 194 IP, 4.22 ERA, 93 BB, 164 SO

 As much as I liked Victor Martinez, and as happy as I was to see him come to the Red Sox in 2009, I was always a little sour about that deal requiring Justin Masterson's departure.

Masterson was a home grown guy who came to the mound every outing determined to win. He had a funky delivery and a goofy smile on his face, and he seemed like the kind of person everyone wants to be around.

All that said, the deal was a good one for the Red Sox at the time - but it also means that I was totally ecstatic to see Masterson signing a free agent deal with the Sox this offseason.

No, there isn't an obvious ace in the Sox 2015 rotation, and it's unlikely Masterson will evolve into one overnight. But the front office has put together a staff of solid pitchers, and seem content to assume one or more of them will have a good-to-excellent season.

Joe Kelly's self-confidence aside, Justin Masterson would love to be the guy who steps up big for Boston this year. He signed a one-year deal in the hope that he'll perform well and be able to cash in next season.

Obviously, Masterson's numbers haven't been great for the last few years, but he's also struggled with lingering injuries. Already in Fort Myers, Masterson reports he's pain free for the first time in a long while.

If Masterson can only deliver what Bill James and his team projected for him in 2015, the Red Sox will have seemingly wasted $9.5 million. But the contract has an additional $2.5 million in incentives, and Masterson's health is keeping me optimistic.

I think we'll see a big year from Masterson in 2015. At the very least, it'll be nice to see him in a Red Sox uniform once again.

2015 Bill James Projections: David Ortiz

Source

2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI

2011: 146 games, .309 BA, .398 OBP, .554 SLG, 29 HR, 96 RBI

2012 projection: 150 games, .277 BA, .378 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 104 RBI

2012: 90 games, .318 BA, .415 OBP, .611 SLG, 23 HR, 60 RBI

2013 projection: 147 games, .283 BA, .386 OBP, .533 SLG, 32 HR, 103 RBI

2013: 137 games, .309 BA, .395 OBP, .564 SLG, 30 HR, 103 RBI

2014 projection: 146 games, .287 BA, .384 OBP, .531 SLG, 30 HR, 98 RBI

2014: 142 games, .263 BA, .355 OBP, .517 SLG, 35 HR, 104 RBI

2015 projection: 144 games, .275 BA, .371 OBP, .517 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI

David Ortiz's batting average might be the only metric by which he shows his age, and it's still well within the acceptable range. The legendary lefty's power numbers are perennially strong, and he's as beloved by fans as he was a decade ago.

The Red Sox are one of the few teams left in the American League that employ a true DH; most other clubs use the DH spot to give players a day or two to rest without being pulled from the lineup. 

Players like Adam Dunn or Victor Martinez might play their share of games as the DH, but they're coming off careers as position players. David Ortiz, on the other hand, has been a designated hitter far longer than he ever played first base - and he's excellent at it.

I'm not worried about Big Papi in 2015 - he's done a reasonable job meeting - and often surpassing - Bill James' projections in the last few years. Someday soon, we will have to face the reality of David Ortiz's baseball mortality. But today is not that day.

Victor Martinez to the Tigers

The first major event of the Red Sox offseason is imminent, and it's not the news any of us were hoping for. No, Theo didn't manage to trade for Adrian Gonzalez or Elvis Andrus, or perform a miracle and sign Cliff Lee (at least, not yet). Sadly, the first big-name signing this offseason involves the Detroit Tigers winning the services of former Sox catcher Victor Martinez.

According to MLB.com, the Tigers offered VMart four years and $50 million, and that was enough. We know that Martinez was rather miffed that the Sox didn't extend him before the 2010 season, a la Josh Beckett, or even during the season, despite Theo's well-documented dislike of carrying on contract discussions in-season.

At first glance, this looks bad. Catastrophic, even, since the Red Sox are left with the mostly-untried Jarrod Saltalamacchia and (possibly) the ever-aging Jason Varitek. However, there are reasons for the choice to not retain Martinez - and trust me, this was a CHOICE on Theo's part.

The Red Sox aren't sure how long Victor can continue to be an effective backstop, and his defense behind the plate has never been spectacular, despite some strides in that area in 2010. For a catcher, VMart is extremely effective with the bat, but once he has to make the inevitable transition to first base (or DH), his numbers will be league-average at best. The Red Sox are currently overpaying an aging designated hitter, and it's not a position that they like to be in.

According to boston.com's Extra Bases blog, the Red Sox offered Martinez two separate contracts: "three years and $36 million or four years and $42 million," but neither seemed to be enough for the soon-to-be 32-year-old, as he took Detroit's offer instead.

Before everyone storms Fenway Park's front office with their torches and pitchforks, please take a second to understand that Theo Epstein always has reasons for signing the players he does, and letting others walk - and usually, the reasons are good (excepting at the shortstop position). With Martinez's presumptive salary off the books, the Red Sox have a great deal of wiggle room for their 2011 payroll. They will also doubtless offer Victor arbitration, and thus receive two draft picks for him, as he is a Type A free agent.

This could be the non-deal that allows the Sox to go out and sign a Carl Crawford, or a Jayson Werth, and which could potentially give them the freedom to part with some prospects (and someone like Jacoby Ellsbury) for Adrian Gonzalez.

It's important to remember how things have panned out in recent years when Theo has allowed a Red Sox free agent to walk. Jason Bay came off a great season for the Sox and had a terrible, injury-plagued season for the Mets (though he would have fit in with the walking wounded at Fenway). Pedro Martinez was a shell of his former self by the middle of his deal, post-Sox. Nomar Garciaparra, anyone? (Okay, so that was a trade, but he was never the same.)

I trust Theo. Almost unconditionally. In fact, I might believe in him more than I do my friends and family (probably a problem in my personal relationships). I believe he has a plan, that he will leave no stone unturned, and that ultimately, he'll put a great team on the field in 2011. All they have to do is stay healthy...

Hey... Who's that fat lady?

[Bonus points to anyone who knows what 90's TV show the title is from!]

Before I let the mysterious overweight woman following the Sox around sing her song, let me just say that I refuse to give up until the math tells me that there is no other choice. Remember our opponents in the 2007 World Series? Those Colorado Rockies won 21 out of 22 games down the stretch, proving that such a feat, while improbable, is possible.

I know in my heart that things are drawing to a close, and that each Sox loss and every Yankees and Rays victory takes us closer and closer to some October golf. However, just because the Sox look to be out of the championship hunt for 2010 does not mean that we should be giving up on this season: this is still an interesting team capable of playing great baseball.

We've got several players playing for a spot next year, both rookies hoping to earn a permanent spot, and free-agents to be looking to up their price for the upcoming offseason. And what of these pending FA? David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, Adrian Beltre, and Victor Martinez all have contracts expiring when the last out is recorded this season (which looks more and more like it will be October 3rd).

Let's start with the easy one: Mike Lowell has repeatedly said he will retire after the season, to which I say "Happy Trails, Mikey." Lowell has meant a lot to me personally in his time with the Sox, and, lest you'd forgotten, he was the MVP of the 2007 World Series. I know he's been unhappy with the way things have gone this year, but if anyone deserves to be sent off with respect, it's Mikey.

David Ortiz will most likely be back - other teams are not going to be lining up to take a gamble on an aging slugger with Papi's history and body type. The Red Sox are probably not going to pick up the $12.5 million option for 2011, but it's all but certain that a deal will get done.


Beltre and Martinez are more complicated. The Red Sox need them, and they seem to thrive in Boston, which is certainly no given for many players. However, the sticking point between the sides will likely be length of contract, for both players. The Red Sox will not want to sign Martinez to a long-term deal as a catcher, as players at that position rarely age well, but it's possible that they see him as Papi's eventual replacement at DH.

Beltre is the most unlikely of all to be with the 2011 Red Sox, as his agent is Scott Boras, and he had excellent 2010 numbers. Boras always pushes his players to free-agency, and there will be teams that value Beltre more than the Sox will, and will be willing to pay him accordingly. It's a real shame, since his antics have kept the club fun, despite the continual reminder of the 2010 Parade of Carnage.

So maybe this is it... I hear the fat lady warming up backstage. But if the Red Sox aren't playing meaningful baseball this fall, we can at least take comfort in the memory of what happened the season after 2006 - the last time the Sox missed the playoffs.

Calling for the win

I lied to all of you this morning. It was unintentional, but I'm sorry nonetheless. Joel Pineiro will not be pitching against Clay Buchholz this evening. In a flurry of unforeseen circumstances, Dan Haren was traded to the Angels from the D-Backs late last night, and will jump right into the middle of things by taking the mound tonight.

The twenty-nine-year-old pitcher is 7-8 with a 4.60 ERA this season in the NL West, but was 1-2 against the American League this season, including a loss to the Red Sox at Fenway Park on June 17th. Haren went just 5.2 innings, and allowed seven hits, three walks, and six runs, four of which were earned.

Haren has been mediocre thus far this season, but will a change of scene be just what the doctor ordered?

It's possible that Haren will be nervous and disoriented in a new city, but it's just as likely that he'll be eager to prove himself and spot on. Clay Buchholz is a mystery of his own: will we get the Clay of last Wednesday, when he lasted just four innings and gave up five runs? Or will we see the pre-DL Clay, the guy with 7-2 record, and 2.45 ERA?

Will we get good Clay or bad Clay?

Victor Martinez is finally back behind the dish, and Clay does enjoy throwing to him, so I'm expecting big things from both of them tonight. I'm calling for the WIN, and I'm confident Clay will deliver.

Masterful Performance

If we had to take a beatdown, I'm at least glad it came at the hands of this man:


Seriously, the one time this season Masterson dominates, we're on the receiving end. If I didn't know Masterson was too nice to have an once of revenge in him, I'd say this was payback for trading him last summer.

Now, I wouldn't go back and undo what was done, but last night's performance FINALLY vindicated me for promising a Cleveland fan (they do exist!) that he'd love Masterson. Last year's trade was special in a couple of ways: it made both clubs happy (at least for a time), and it made both players tear up.

Both VMart and Masterson had an unusually high level of attachment to their respective teams, and were extremely taken aback by the trade. And last night, in a particularly ironic twist, VMart mustered one of just two hits allowed by Masterson in a complete game shutout.


I would say I'm happy to concede a game to the struggling Indians, but that would be a lie - especially since both Tampa Bay and New York won last night. I'm counting on Jon Lester to put away Mitch Talbot tonight, and get our boys back on track before interleague restarts.

The Running Game

"Robinson Cano is the only base runner who’s been thrown out by the Sox this year. Hang your head, Mr. Cano. You’re like the one guy in 500 who gets a citation for jaywalking." -Dan Shaughnessy

This is a problem. For all of the Sox' talk of run prevention, the inability of either backstop to stop the running game is a glaring discrepancy. Counting last night's partial game, the Red Sox have allowed 16 stolen bases in seventeen attempts. This is not okay.

I don't know what the answer is: there aren't many legitimate catchers out there, and those who are good are decidedly unavailable, while the in-system catchers are at least 2 years away. Maybe the pitchers need to do more work holding runners on... Throwing over to first once in a while, maybe? (I'm NOT talking to you, Clay Buchholz!)

One thing is for sure: pitching and defense only works when ALL NINE POSITIONS can make things work, and right now there's a glaring hole in the plan.

However, according to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, the steals haven't been too costly:

"I checked it out this morning. Of those 16 steals, nine have led to runs scoring. But only once so far did a stolen base helped lead directly to a loss."

Okay. But what if the Sox end up one win short of a playoff berth? I know there's a tendency to dismiss early struggles, and in some cases that is an appropriate course of action. Now? I think its time to at least consider the possibility that this is the weakness to focus on, and fix. Please, Theo?