2015 Bill James Projections: Justin Masterson

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2010: 6-13, 29 starts, 180 IP, 4.70 ERA, 73 BB, 140 SO
2011 projection: 9-10, 26 starts, 175 IP, 4.11 ERA, 73 BB, 147 SO
2011: 12-10, 33 starts, 216 IP, 3.21 ERA, 65 BB, 158 SO
2012 projection: 11-12, 32 starts, 205 IP, 3.82 ERA, 70 BB, 164 SO
2012: 11-15, 34 starts, 206.1 IP, 4.93 ERA, 88 BB, 159 SO
2013 projection: 10-12, 34 starts, 204 IP, 4.01 ERA, 79 BB, 160 SO
2013: 14-10, 29 starts, 193 IP, 3.45 ERA, 76 BB, 195 SO
2014 projection: 10-12, 30 starts, 198 IP, 3.82 ERA, 78 BB, 165 SO
2014: 7-9, 25 starts, 128.2 IP, 5.88 ERA,  69 BB, 116 SO
2015 projection: 9-13, 31 starts, 194 IP, 4.22 ERA, 93 BB, 164 SO

 As much as I liked Victor Martinez, and as happy as I was to see him come to the Red Sox in 2009, I was always a little sour about that deal requiring Justin Masterson's departure.

Masterson was a home grown guy who came to the mound every outing determined to win. He had a funky delivery and a goofy smile on his face, and he seemed like the kind of person everyone wants to be around.

All that said, the deal was a good one for the Red Sox at the time - but it also means that I was totally ecstatic to see Masterson signing a free agent deal with the Sox this offseason.

No, there isn't an obvious ace in the Sox 2015 rotation, and it's unlikely Masterson will evolve into one overnight. But the front office has put together a staff of solid pitchers, and seem content to assume one or more of them will have a good-to-excellent season.

Joe Kelly's self-confidence aside, Justin Masterson would love to be the guy who steps up big for Boston this year. He signed a one-year deal in the hope that he'll perform well and be able to cash in next season.

Obviously, Masterson's numbers haven't been great for the last few years, but he's also struggled with lingering injuries. Already in Fort Myers, Masterson reports he's pain free for the first time in a long while.

If Masterson can only deliver what Bill James and his team projected for him in 2015, the Red Sox will have seemingly wasted $9.5 million. But the contract has an additional $2.5 million in incentives, and Masterson's health is keeping me optimistic.

I think we'll see a big year from Masterson in 2015. At the very least, it'll be nice to see him in a Red Sox uniform once again.

The last time...

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The last time the Red Sox won a playoff game at Fenway Park, Justin Masterson earned the win. The last time the Red Sox won a playoff game at Fenway Park, JD Drew hit a home run. The last time the Red Sox won a playoff game at Fenway Park, they overcame a seven-run deficit by scoring eight runs over the last three innings, beating the Rays 8-7 in Game 5 of the 2008 ALCS.

This year things look different. For one, Justin Masterson's season just ended - in Cleveland - and JD Drew is enjoying his retirement, probably hunting an alligator or something.

For another, the 2008 playoffs began with the Rays as the AL East champs, while the Red Sox were the Wild Card entry. Luckily for us, this was before the introduction of the second Wild Card and the one-game playoff.

In 2008, the Red Sox were looking for their second World Series title in two years, and their third in five years, while the Rays were looking for the first title in franchise history.

This year, the Red Sox are looking for their first World Series title in five years, and the Rays... are still looking for the first title in franchise history.

The ALDS starts this afternoon. A best of five series isn't nearly as terrifying as a one-game playoff, but it's still far from a sure thing, especially with the Rays pitching staff. That being said, I have faith in this team. These guys have proven over and over that they're worth believing in, and I can't wait to have my faith rewarded.

Lackey leads the way

After getting absolutely demolished yesterday, the Red Sox defeated the Indians in a decisive manner tonight in a nine-inning downpour at Fenway Park. John Lackey was excellent, going seven innings, scattering just two hits and three walks and allowing just a single run.

The Sox offense had his back, punishing old friend Justin Masterson to the tune of five runs in six innings, and then beating up on the bullpen just a bit for good measure. Every starter had at least one hit except Stephen Drew, and Jose Iglesias played his first major league game at third base with no issues.

Beyond being impressive from the rubber, John Lackey had a great defensive play in the game, coming off the mound and sliding a few feet on his knees to throw out the runner at first base. I picked up Lackey with the very last pick in my fantasy league, and he's making me look much more savvy than I really am. Sadly I won't get any points for his excellent defense, but the eight strikeouts and low ERA are working for me.

Masterful Performance

If we had to take a beatdown, I'm at least glad it came at the hands of this man:


Seriously, the one time this season Masterson dominates, we're on the receiving end. If I didn't know Masterson was too nice to have an once of revenge in him, I'd say this was payback for trading him last summer.

Now, I wouldn't go back and undo what was done, but last night's performance FINALLY vindicated me for promising a Cleveland fan (they do exist!) that he'd love Masterson. Last year's trade was special in a couple of ways: it made both clubs happy (at least for a time), and it made both players tear up.

Both VMart and Masterson had an unusually high level of attachment to their respective teams, and were extremely taken aback by the trade. And last night, in a particularly ironic twist, VMart mustered one of just two hits allowed by Masterson in a complete game shutout.


I would say I'm happy to concede a game to the struggling Indians, but that would be a lie - especially since both Tampa Bay and New York won last night. I'm counting on Jon Lester to put away Mitch Talbot tonight, and get our boys back on track before interleague restarts.

Panic!

There is entirely too much going on in my life this week.  It's finals week here at Trinity College (the home of basic cable and no NESNplus), and I have four of them (English tomorrow at noon, Constitutional Law Thursday at nine, American Political Thought Thursday at noon, and Urban Politics Friday at 3).  Yes, I have the very last final, all but ensuring that, by the time it's over, I won't be able to leave Hartford in time to catch the Sox play Tampa Bay once I get home (maybe that's a good thing, judging by this past series....).

Am I truly expected to be able to focus on studying when the Sox just lost three of four down at the Trop, and are now heading to New York to play a pair in that brand new launching pad in the Bronx?  I mean, in the grand scheme of things, what's more important: Charles Dickens' Bleak House or the fact that David Ortiz went approximately 0-for-5,084 this weekend?  The evolution of the Supreme Court's interpretation of privacy or our starting rotation possessing a 5.50 ERA?  I mean, I can see where the whole "right to privacy" debate might affect me, but the only Bleak House I'm worried about is Fenway Park if Ortiz doesn't stop impersonating Mo Vaughn - and fast.

Alright, the Yankees series will be over after my English final, but then there's Cleveland, and then Tampa Bay (luckily at friendly Fenway), and If you think I'll be able to focus while watching Justin Masterson try to get back on track (Wednesday night), or hoping Tim Wakefield continues his torrid pace (Thursday night), then you haven't been paying attention.  This could be a problem.  However, if the Sox can win 3-4 games out of their next five, and I escape the semester with a 3.4ish GPA, I'll consider this week a success... If I can even get through it.

My friend Becca and me at the new Yankee Stadium during their exhibition against the Cubs on April 4... Yes, she's the Yankee fan.

6 things I love right now...

1.) A straight steal of home by Jacoby Ellsbury.  Okay, you know how I feel about him, but tonight, he totally earned all of that admiration the fangirls heap on him every time he takes a breath.  I might even consider getting a #46 shirt... maybe when his OBP is up over .350...

2.) Our ridiculously productive farm system.  Beyond the obvious position players (Youk, Pedroia, Lowrie), the farm system has given us quality arms.  Tonight Theo's strategy of "stockpiling" quality arms was on display, starting off with Justin Masterson (you know, the 6'6" sinkerballer that drives a Mini Cooper) and continuing with Hunter Jones and Michael Bowden.  Love it. So much.

3.) The savvy free agent pickups from the offseason.  This one is in the same vein as the last, but I LOVE that Saito can close when Paps (he of the erratic control) is unavailable, having pitched two straight days.

4.) This team knows how to win.  They pull it together during slugfests and nailbiters, can string together plays and create runs (see Ellsbury, above), or, conversely, slug it out with the best of them.  For instance, yesterdays game? Ridiculous.  Thought I was looking at a football score.

5.) Mark Teixeira goes 0-for-4 with a strikeout, all of his outs courtesy of a Red Sox homegrown player.  maybe this is vindictive, but it just feels so good to see him struggle to hit his weight and commit errors (third inning) while Mikey Lowell hits .324 with sparkling defense.  I wonder how much his wife will love New York when they're getting hate mail...

6.) SWEEPING THE YANKEES!!!! (This one should need no explanation)

Enough Already...!

OK, after the last loss, I tried to be rational, and even optimistic.  Since that didn't work, I'm going to go off on my first Official Rant of the 2009 season.

First of all, even though Ellsbury managed to get on base twice last night (a new season high!), he really needs to stop flailing at the first pitch every time he comes to the plate.  Really.  This is way beyond impatience, it's as if he's trying to prove all his doubters wrong with a single swing.  Here's a tip for the leadoff man: leave the whole "wounded pride" thing to Pedroia, he does it better than you.

Speaking of Pedroia, how on earth did Figgins snag that "laser" down the line that Pedroia hit in the sixth?  Number fifteen didn't look pleased (though the NESN camera people have finally figured out not to close in on his face after disappointments)... 

Tim Wakefield, by the grace of God (and some great defense behind him), managed to grind out a quality start, and the game was within reach until the bullpen gave up three runs.  I thought pitching (and especially relief pitching) was supposed to be the backbone of this team?!?  I guess I can deal with a bad outing from Masterson, I just wish it could have come while we weren't mired in a losing streak and in last place in the division.

So ends the (abbreviated) melodramatic rant.  I know this is an overreaction, and that we're four games into the season and that there's no reason to panic, but sometimes acting absolutely ridiculous and ignorant makes me feel better (hmmm, I wonder why Rush Limbaugh isn't happier?).

Oh, and for a more personal note, my friends SO don't get the extent of my devotion to this team... one of them actually asked if he could put in a movie near the end of the game last night!  Seriously?!? I've been waiting for this since last October, and you want to watch something previously recorded instead?!

I like to picture Youk saying something like "Nice job getting on base... you DO know you're supposed to do that more than once a week, right?"

Five Minute Musings

Five quick points while I should be writing a paper:

1. SPRING TRAINING!!!!!!!!!! I'm so excited.  Seriously.  Words cannot describe how great a day it is, even though it was so windy that I thought I might blow away walking to class.  But, to be honest, I'm just happy that there will now be actual baseball-related material to talk about.  I'm already sick of talking smack about A-Rod [who knew that could happen?].

2.  Josh Beckett is reportedly in great shape [not that they would say anything if he wasn't].  Apparently he scored better on a shoulder-strength test than he did even back in 2007.  You know, that year when he won 20 games... and I think there might have been some Postseason dominance, maybe a ring...?  Beckett is currently playing for a 2010 option that will automatically vest if/when he makes twenty-eight starts.  The option is for $12 million, and here's what Josh had to say back in 2003 when he signed the deal: "I didn't go for top dollar.  I wanted to play here.  I've already made quite a bit of money in this game."  Wow.  I don't think I can adequately express how much I love that the Sox have so many players who just love to play - oh, and to win.

3.  Jon Lester was one of the first players to get to camp, and weei.com is reporting that he's put on a few pounds of muscle since the end of the 2008 campaign.  Hopefully it will be enough for him to hold up for the whole season like he did last year.  On another note, here's hoping that the Sox FO do the right thing with this guy and lock him up long term.  I for one don't really think that they'll extend Beckett past 2010 [although it's possible, as he'll only be 30 years old], and Jon Lester definitely has the makings of an ace.  Obviously something about Portland, Maine is a good influence on young players.

4.  Justin Masterson might be as whipped as Mark Teixeira.  Again according to weei.com, he bought a Mini Cooper becasue his wife wanted one.  I'll just tell myself that's as far as it goes... hopefully Mrs. Masterson doesn't suddenly decide she doesn't like the stores on Newbury Street.  But seriously.  Watch the video.  Masterson is quite the character.  In pitching related news, Justin will be going through Spring Training as a starter, and likely make the switch to the 'pen closer to Opening Day.

5.  Hideki Okajima threw 78 pitches in his bullpen session today, more than any other Sox player.  John Farrell quipped that he looked ready to start the season.  Brad Penny also looks to be ready for some serious baseball, throwing off a mound for the first time since he was shut down in September.  He credits the Sox doctors with helping him get over his injury, and was seen joking around with fellow recovering-ex-Dodger Takashi Saito.  The last of the rehabbing new-additions, John Smoltz, will be taking it slow, as the Sox don't have any pressing need for his arm right away.

So, there you have it: spring is here... or tantalizingly close, at the very least.

Seriously.  Watch it.