2015 Bill James Projections: Shane Victorino

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2011: 132 games, .279 BA, .355 OBP, .491 SLG, 17 HR, 61 RBI
2012 projection: 149 games, .277 BA, .344 OBP, .441 SLG, 17 HR, 64 RBI
2012: 154 games, .255 BA, .321 OBP, .383 SLG, 11 HR, 55 RBI
2013 projection: 155 games. .269 BA, .338 OBP, .418 SLG, 14 HR, 59 RBI
2013: 122 games, .294 BA, .351 OBP, .451 SLG, 15 HR, 61 RBI
2014 projection: 148 games, .270 BA, .336 OBP, .415 SLG, 14 HR, 58 RBI
2014: 30 games, .268 BA, .303 OBP, .382 SLG, 2 HR, 12 RBI
2015 projection: 129 games, .265 BA, .326 OBP, .410 SLG, 12 HR, 50 RBI

Shane Victorino's 2013 was derailed early on with hamstring and back problems, and then he underwent season-ending back surgery in August. In 2013, he was an integral part of the World Series run, but with just one year left on his deal and a crowded outfield situation, we may be saying goodbye to the Flyin' Hawaiian sooner rather than later.

I like Victorino a lot, and I hope he sticks around at least through the end of his deal, but this might be one of those situations where the Red Sox showcase him a lot during spring training and early on in the season before dealing him to a team in need to open up some space in the outfield.

Bill James and his team project a return to form for Victorino in 2015, but it's hard to guess what any player will do after such an extended time away from baseball activities. The Red Sox owe Victorino $13 million in 2015, so they'll be looking for a trade partner that might be willing to take on a significant portion of that money.

If Victorino does get to stay around, that salary is likely to be a factor in determining playing time - you don't pay a guy that much to ride the bench four days a week. Victorino is a great clubhouse guy, and he's seriously embraced playing in Boston, so his presence might help some of the young players and transplants adjust.

Wherever Victorino ends the 2015 season, he's sure to be a solid contributor. But here's hoping he ends his Red Sox tenure the way he started it: celebrating a World Series victory on the field at Fenway Park.

Red Sox crush Blue Jays

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Last night's Red Sox looked like an entirely different team than the one that got demolished by the Yankees on Thursday. Will Middlebrooks and Shane Victorino are back in action, and their presence helped the offense score eight runs on the hapless Blue Jays.

Jake Peavy pitched seven innings and gave up just a single run, then Chris Capuano and Andrew Miller each pitched a scoreless frame to finish out the contest.

Every Red Sox batter had at least one hit - and the seemingly hopeless A.J. Pierzynski had three. It was a game that triggered pleasant memories of last season, a fantastic romp through Rogers Centre that was almost enough to wipe away the rotten taste from the loss to the Yankees the night before.

Was yesterday's game the harbinger of things to come? Have the Red Sox turned the corner on their horrible start? The return of Middlebrooks and Victorino certainly won't hurt - and now that we know about secret knuckleballer Mike Carp, things are looking up.

Jackie Bradley Jr. Making His Case

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In a stunning reversal of last year's dynamics, Jackie Bradley Jr. is having an excellent start to the season after a somewhat disappointing spring training. Ironically, Bradley wasn't even supposed to be on the Opening Day roster, but Shane Victorino tweaked his hamstring and got the flu, so here we are.

In seven games, Bradley has eight hits (including two doubles), with five RBIs - and he's come up with some key defensive plays in that time, too.

No word yet on Victorino's expected return, but if Bradley keeps up the good work, there will be some tough decisions ahead. It's pretty clear that Bradley's making his case to stay, and with Grady Sizemore embarking on a redemption tour of his own, the outfield could be pretty crowded with the return of the Flyin' Hawaiian.

It's a nice problem to have - I'd certainly rather worry where to put all the productive outfielders, rather than panicking over where to find some offensive power.

David Ross is better than you

Pitchers and catchers will report to Fort Myers in less than a month - which means today is the perfect time to remind you all of the hilarity and perfection of David Ross.

Every year, the Red Sox release a video of photo day outtakes: when players are asked to read promos on camera instead of playing baseball, they tend to struggle. The results are typically as endearing as they are ridiculous.

But the best part of last year's outtakes video isn't Dustin Pedroia describing a poster of himself as "creepy," or David Ortiz acting as Shane Victorino's personal stylist - it's David Ross giving fans his daily forecast. You'll have to watch all the way to the end to see Ross's meteorological expertise, but the whole thing is definitely worth it.

2014 Bill James Projections - Shane Victorino

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2011: 132 games, .279 BA, .355 OBP, .491 SLG, 17 HR, 61 RBI
2012 projection: 149 games, .277 BA, .344 OBP, .441 SLG, 17 HR, 64 RBI
2012: 154 games, .255 BA, .321 OBP, .383 SLG, 11 HR, 55 RBI
2013 projection: 155 games. .269 BA, .338 OBP, .418 SLG, 14 HR, 59 RBI
2013: 122 games, .294 BA, .351 OBP, .451 SLG, 15 HR, 61 RBI
2014 projection: 148 games, .270 BA, .336 OBP, .415 SLG, 14 HR, 58 RBI

Shane Victorino spent 2013 in a constant battle with his own body. It seemed like every week he had some sort of new nagging injury to contend with, but it was clear that he gave it his all every day he made it to the field.

Yesterday Victorino underwent surgery to repair his right thumb, which he injured during a mid-September game against the Orioles; he is expected to be ready for Spring Training. 

It's interesting that James projects fewer home runs and RBIs for Victorino in 2014, considering he's banking on Victorino playing in an additional twenty-six games. I would expect a healthy Shane Victorino to at least match his 2013 performance, and I wouldn't be surprised if he surpassed himself.

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

What the numbers here don't show is the defensive prowess that Victorino brought to Fenway's expansive right field. As someone who has played the majority of his career in center field, Victorino slid into the right field position pretty effortlessly last season - and his flexibility will certainly be a boon as the Red Sox ease Jackie Bradley Jr. into center next spring.

Shane Victorino: History Buff?

In a video compilation of politicians (including all living presidents), journalists, and celebrities reciting Abraham Lincoln's famous Gettysburg Address, Red Sox right fielder Shane Victorino is the only athlete.

The video was produced by legendary filmmaker Ken Burns, and its website doesn't have any clues as to why Victorino made the cut. However, Shane was cleanshaven during his lines, so it either had to be recorded very recently, or quite long ago.

If you're super impatient (I mean, the Gettysburg Address is only 270 words, and the video is under two minutes), Victorino's part starts around the seventeen second mark.

Ben Cherington - Executive of the Year

©Kayla Chadwick 2013

Red Sox General Manager Ben Cherington has been named the Sporting News Executive of the Year. The award was decided by a voting panel of 31 Major League executives, and this year marks just the fourth time in MLB history that a Red Sox exec earned the honor.

Of the thirty-one votes, Cherington got fifteen, while Neal Huntington of the Pittsburgh Pirates got nine, Dayton Moore of the Kansas City Royals got four, and Frank Wren of the Atlanta Braves got three.

Cherington's award is a testament to how much people love an underdog story. If any team with the payroll capabilities of Boston could be considered an unlikely winner, it was this one. After an unbelievably disastrous 2012, the worst-to-first romp of 2013 was both glorious and unexpected.

Cherington's offseason moves (signing Shane Victorino, Koji Uehara, and Mike Napoli, among others) are certainly to be congratulated, but the true start of the 2013 turnaround came late in 2012, when the Dodgers gave the Red Sox a mulligan on some truly mammoth contracts. Without the trade of Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, and Nick Punto, the Red Sox would never have the chance to win it all in 2013.

So maybe Cherington should send a case of World Series champagne out to the LA front office? Because without them, he doesn't get this award.

Mike Napoli gets white girl wasted

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Mike Napoli really, really enjoyed the Red Sox rolling rally on Saturday morning. The Red Sox first baseman didn't even make it to Hynes Convention Center before stripping off his shirt, to the delight of everyone in the crowd (and Jonny Gomes).

But even after the hours long duckboat ride, Napoli wasn't ready for the festivities to end. Jake Peavy may have celebrated by purchasing a bright green duckboat, but Nap didn't want to be outdone - so he became a Red Sox legend.

If you're a Twitter regular, you probably saw the #DrunkNapoli hashtag popping up on Saturday night, and unlike hashtags like #LaserShow, this wasn't hyperbole, but reality.

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Napoli made his way around the city, hitting up bars left and right. The photo progression shows that he wore at least two different shirts over the course of the evening, but most often returned to his element: half naked.

But where were his teammates? Napoli was short a wingman, stumbling around Boston all on his own. I can't speak for all of Nap's fellow champs, but Shane Victorino decided to celebrate in a more reserved fashion - by grocery shopping at a local Shaw's.

We love the Red Sox... but they love each other more

GIF via Surviving Grady

One of the things Red Sox fans are most famous for is our undeniable (and at times a little creepy) level of devotion to the team. We've all been guilty of letting our fandom get the best of us; indeed, last night on twitter there were several implied offers of sexual favors for the heroes of Game 4... and while most of those were from straight women (maybe including me), that wasn't the case across the board.

But not so fast, Red Sox Nation. If you, like me, want to kiss the glorious beards of our local nine in gratitude, you'll have to get in line, because David Ross has beaten you to the punch.

Ross is just paying it forward: Mike Napoli planted one on the backup catcher during Game 6 of the ALCS, in celebration of Shane Victorino's grand slam.

It's hardly a secret that professional athletes often express their affection for teammates in physical ways. Between good luck butt pats, thanks-for-the-touchdown hugs, and handshakes that are more elaborate than wedding vows, professional sports can be just as homoerotic as your average episode of Glee.

But it's more than business as usual for the 2013 Red Sox. Their love for one another shines through on the bleakest of days - and when they win... well, they take "bromoerotic" to a whole new level.

#GetBeard

Three months ago, I wrote a post extolling the virtues of the various beards of the 2013 Boston Red Sox. It was intended as a whimsical post: I thought the scruffy beards were fun, and fitting for the kind of "anything goes" personality the team was developing. 

It has since become the most viewed post on my blog, as Red Sox fans actively search for information about their favorite bearded baseball team. The Red Sox social media team has finally caught on to this phenomenon, and responded with enthusiasm, producing images like these:

For Twitter

For Facebook

They've introduced a hashtag (now useable on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram) for fans to use when expressing their love for the 2013 Red Sox: #GetBeard.

They're even using the beard-mania to get fans into Fenway (I can't believe attendance is a problem right now, but that's a different issue), at the lowest price I've seen in my lifetime:

That's right, bearded Sox fans: you can see the Red Sox take on the Orioles next Wednesday for just $1! And for the ladies, children, and sparsely whiskered gentlemen, fake beards and even drawn-on beards will get you that same incredibly low ticket price.

None of this would be possible without the incredible beards of the men on the field: though Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes have the fluffiest beards on the team, nearly all of their teammates are giving them a run for their money.

By far the greatest unforeseen consequence of a bearded team is how much they all seem to revel in the beards of their cohorts; every time a bearded player returns to the dugout after a successful play or at-bat, his teammates tug on his beard in jubilation:

It's part of what makes this team so easy to love: the camaraderie is impossible to miss, and their never-give-up attitude and winning record are just icing on the cake. As the Red Sox continue their (hopefully) relentless march back into the playoffs, I'm developing beard envy - and though it's a problem I never anticipated having, I'm totally okay with it.

Red Sox Never Say Die

[If you haven't seen The Goonies, drop whatever you're doing right now and go watch it.]

Like the Goonies, the 2013 Red Sox never say die. This season, the Sox have come from behind to win 28 games, most recently last night's contest against the Toronto Blue Jays.

As has been the case so many times this season, the win was a true team effort. Starter Ryan Dempster went seven innings and allowed just one run, leaving the game in line for the win. Unfortunately for Dempster, Junichi Tazawa came in and gave up a home run to J.P. Arencibia.

Arencibia's homer tied up the game, and was just the eighth home run allowed by Tazawa in 55.2 innings pitched this year. Craig Breslow pitched an inning before handing the ball off to Koji Uehara, who pitched 1.1 innings, and earned the win after Shane Victorino knocked in two Red Sox runs in the 11th inning.

In past years I haven't been able to muster much optimism when the Red Sox end up in extra innings on the road. Inevitably, I'd stay awake to watch the other team walk off, deliriously happy with their victory.

That hasn't been the case this year. This team seems to want it more than their opponents, and more than previous Red Sox teams. I'll happily stay up to the wee hours of the morning on a daily basis to watch the Sox win games like last night's.

With West Coast trip looming, Sox earn another win

Photo via Boston.com

The Red Sox completed a three game sweep of the San Diego Padres with an 8-2 win at Fenway Park this afternoon. Rookie Allen Webster earned his first career win with a quality start, six innings pitched with just two runs allowed on a hot and humid Independence Day in Boston.

Webster had some serious run support from all over the lineup: leadoff man Jacoby Ellsbury scored three times (once on his third home run of the season), Mike Napoli scored twice, and Shane Victorino, Brandon Snyder, and number nine batter Jose Iglesias scored once each, Snyder on his first homer of the season.

The Red Sox are kicking off a ten-game West Coast road trip tomorrow in Anaheim, where they'll play three games against the Angels, then heading to Seattle for four against the Mariners, and finishing up their tour with three games in Oakland before returning to the East Coast for the All-Star Break. Both the Angels and the Mariners are playing below .500, while the A's are in first place and currently claim a 50-36 record. Doubtless all three teams have better records than they would if the Astros hadn't been moved into their division.

Even so, it's important that the Sox maintain their winning ways while we struggle to stay awake during the seven of ten games that will end past 1am on the East Coast. John Farrell emphasized the importance of this road trip after today's victory, and with John Lackey dealing, Jon Lester seemingly back on track, and rookies stepping up, I'd say the Sox are likely to maintain their momentum heading into the All-Star Break.

The Jose Bautista Show

Last night's loss was less a story about Red Sox failings, and more an epic tale of one man proving that high socks give you superpowers. If you do a Google image search for Jose Bautista, it's pretty obvious that he normally wears his uniform the way that nearly all the Red Sox players do: with long pants and socks hidden beneath them. But last night, Bautista went for a different look (in my opinion, a better one), and had an excellent performance to boot.

Bautista hit a solo home run in the sixth inning to put the Blue Jays up 2-0. The blast was the 18th of the year for Bautista, and the 200th of his career, but he wasn't done. After the Red Sox managed to tie the game on a bases loaded, 2 RBI single from Shane Victorino in the bottom of the seventh, Bautista promptly hit a two-run homer in the next frame to put the Jays on top for good.

Even in the field, Bautista thwarted the Red Sox, as his strong throw from right field to the plate in the sixth inning prevented Victorino from scoring the first run of the game for the home team. Bautista's heroics were surely uplifting to Jays fans, but they (along with the performances of the rest of his teammates) prevented Felix Doubront from earning a win (though he did turn in a quality start), and snapped the Red Sox's four-game winning streak. For the sake of the Red Sox, hopefully Bautista returns to his usual style this afternoon.

Bullpen in shambles after extra innings win

Last night's game was like an episode of the Twilight Zone. After the Red Sox supplied a six-run lead to starter John Lackey right off the bat, he gave up four runs in the five and two-thirds innings he pitched. Though Lackey left the game in line for a win (after hitting the showboating Matt Joyce with a pitch and clearing the benches), the Rays tied the game at six in the bottom of the eighth inning.

The game ended up lasting 14 innings and nearly five and a half hours, and by the end those of us still awake and watching started to get a little loopy. Twitter turned into an even stranger place than usual, as Red Sox fans lost our sanity bit by bit. Thing were briefly ahead by two runs in the top of the tenth inning, but the Rays tied it up again in the bottom of the frame when Andrew Bailey allowed a home run, two walks, and an RBI single.

Things stayed tied up at eight apiece until the top of the fourteenth inning. Shane Victorino scored the winning run after some heads-up base running and an RBI single from Nava. Jarrod Saltalamacchia singled in Nava for an insurance run, but the Sox wouldn't need it, as Franklin Morales (who had come in to start the thirteenth inning, sacrificing his Wednesday start) allowed a single but no runs to finally cement a win for the Red Sox.

The win, though as exciting as it was exhausting, left the bullpen in shambles. The Red Sox will have to make a few moves to cover the players who will be unavailable for a game or two, as well as to get someone who can start on Wednesday after Morales took one for the team early this morning - although he did earn himself a win two days early and with just 35 pitches, so there's that.

Peter Abraham has outlined the specifics of the pitching conundrum over at the Boston.com Extra Bases Blog - basically, it looks like Clayton Mortensen might be headed for the disabled list to make some space on the roster, and it's likely that Alfredo Aceves will take Morales' start on Wednesday. Regardless of how the roster configuration shakes out, it's super important that Jon Lester has a fantastic start tonight. The Sox need a lot of innings tonight more than any other point this season, and I have great confidence in Jon Lester.

The Red Sox and the World Baseball Classic

There's less buzz about the World Baseball Classic among Red Sox fans this time around than there has been in the past - mostly because far fewer Red Sox players are among the participants.  In 2009, the Sox lent out David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Marco Scutaro to various teams, while this year the Sox major league players at the WBC are limited to Shane Victorino and Alfredo Aceves.

Aceves, playing for Mexico, and Victorino, playing for the USA, are both in Pool D for the first round, and are playing in Phoenix, Arizona. It's likely that at least one of them will advance to the second round, which will be played in Miami, and should USA or Mexico make the semifinals and finals, they'll be headed out to AT&T Park in San Francisco. If you want more detailed info about this year's World Baseball Classic, check out this awesome infographic from MLB.

Former Red Sox Daisuke Matsuzaka was the MVP in the 2006 and 2009 tournaments, leading Japan to the title in both of the first two WBCs. However, the thirty-two year old pitcher is not on Japan's roster this year, guaranteeing that there will be a new MVP for the first time in the WBC's short history. My money is still on Japan to take the whole thing, but I couldn't begin to make an MVP projection.

The Red Sox will face off against the Puerto Rican WBC team in an exhibition tonight at JetBlue Park. John Lackey will start the game for the Red Sox, but he is just one of five Sox pitchers scheduled to get his work in during the contest.

Escaping the Carnage of the World Baseball Classic?

According to Boston.com's Extra Bases blog, the Red Sox may send just two of their major leaguers to the World Baseball Classic this year, with the possibility that both Alfredo Aceves (Mexico), and Shane Victorino (USA) will participate. This is a striking change for the Red Sox, who sent a much larger array of players to the 2006 and 2009 WBC.

The 2009 tournament particularly affected the Red Sox, because after Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched Team Japan to its second WBC title (and himself to its MVP), he was on and off the disabled list for the entire MLB season. The Red Sox did get some amusement out of that year's WBC, as Kevin Youkilis restyled his famous goatee:

And we all had some mixed feelings about the brand new bromance between Red Sox second baseman and all around dirt dog Dustin Pedroia and Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter - I mean, I know the tournament is supposed to be about forging connection, but come on!

And for what? The USA finished fourth in the 2009 WBC, because most US players feel their first allegiance is to the team that pays them (and MLB), while in Japan, playing for the national team is a huge honor.

And so I predict that this year, like every World Baseball Classic thus far, Japan will take home the first place, and Daisuke Matsuzaka might even claim his third MVP (though the rosters haven't been announced yet, so no guarantee he's playing). But for the Red Sox, the effect the tournament has on spring training and the 2013 season should be (thankfully) minimized.

2013 Bill James Projections - Shane Victorino

2011: 132 games, .279 BA, .355 OBP, .491 SLG, 17 HR, 61 RBI
2012 projection: 149 games, .277 BA, .344 OBP, .441 SLG, 17 HR, 64 RBI
2012: 154 games, .255 BA, .321 OBP, .383 SLG, 11 HR, 55 RBI
2013 projection: 155 games. .269 BA, .338 OBP, .418 SLG, 14 HR, 59 RBI

I'm not sure I'm quite as excited as David Ortiz is about the Shane Victorino signing.  Papi absolutely gushed about Victorino on the Boston.com Extra Bases blog:

“That’s my boy,” he said. “I’m very happy that he’s going to come in and join us. He’s going to be a guy people are going to love in Boston. People are going to love him. He goes at it hard. He’s got a lot of adrenalin going on. I love that. It gets me going.”

When David Ortiz is that excited about a player, I'm on board. Personally, I'm shamefully tuned out of National League affairs (with a few exceptions), and because Victorino has played exclusively for the Phillies and the Dodgers in his career, I haven't really been that cognizant of his output.

That said, the fact that he can comfortably play all three outfield positions is huge. In his career, Victorino has played 1002 games over nine seasons, 762 games in center field, 148 games in right field (where he will play the bulk of his games for Boston), and 111 games in left field. The importance of this flexibility cannot be overstated, especially since our current center fielder is in his last year under contract, and is a Scott Boras client.

On the offensive side, Victorino is a solid switch-hitting batter. Fenway Park is about 20 feet shallower down the left and right field lines than Dodger Stadium, the home for which Bill James and his team made their power projections, so it's possible that we see better power numbers than the Handbook projected.

Overall, I think it's super important that Victorino seems genuinely excited to be coming to Boston - if you don't believe me, just check out his Twitter page:

Yeah, I think he'll fit right in.