2015 Bill James Projections: Mike Napoli

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2011: 113 games, .320 BA, .414 OBP, .631 SLG, 30 HR, 75 RBI
2012 projection: 131 games, .271 BA, .364 OBP, .537 SLG, 31 HR, 83 RBI
2012: 108 games, .227 BA, .343 OBP, .469 SLG, 24 HR, 56 RBI
2013 projection: 127 games, .248 BA, .350 OBP, .498 SLG, 29 HR, 75 RBI
2013: 139 games, .259 BA, .360 OBP, .482 SLG, 23 HR, 92 RBI
2014 projection: 137 games, .246 BA, .348 OBP, .471 SLG, 26 HR, 79 RBI
2014: 119 games, .248 BA, .370 OBP, .419 SLG, 17 HR, 55 RBI
2015 projection: 135 games, .246 BA, .355 OBP, .453 SLG, 23 HR, 72 RBI

The biggest discrepancy between Mike Napoli's 2013 season and his 2014 season is in the power numbers, primarily home runs and RBIs. Of course, there were fewer Red Sox on base for Nap to drive in this season than last, and he played twenty fewer games this season than last, all well dealing with assorted injuries.

Napoli is currently recovering from surgery to relieve his sleep apnea, a condition that restricts airways during sleep, causing loud snoring and a disruption in breathing. Sleep apnea sufferers often feel tired even after a full night's sleep, so if the surgery was successful it stands to reason Napoli will be better rested in 2015.

After last year's World Series, the Red Sox extended Nap to the tune of two years, and $32 million, so he's due $16 million in 2015, and will be a free agent at the conclusion of next season. If Napoli can perform up to Bill James' projections for him next season, it will be money well spent.

Mike Napoli has embraced the Red Sox and Boston in a way that few players can, and his current contract is exactly the kind of thing the team should pursue in the future: short in years, and perhaps a bit generous in annual value. 

2014 Bill James Projections - Mike Napoli

©2013 Kayla Chadwick

2011: 113 games, .320 BA, .414 OBP, .631 SLG, 30 HR, 75 RBI
2012 projection: 131 games, .271 BA, .364 OBP, .537 SLG, 31 HR, 83 RBI
2012: 108 games, .227 BA, .343 OBP, .469 SLG, 24 HR, 56 RBI
2013 projection: 127 games, .248 BA, .350 OBP, .498 SLG, 29 HR, 75 RBI
2013: 139 games, .259 BA, .360 OBP, .482 SLG, 23 HR, 92 RBI
2014 projection: 137 games, .246 BA, .348 OBP, .471 SLG, 26 HR, 79 RBI

The projections Bill James and his team made for Mike Napoli through last season assumed he would be playing catcher for a sizable portion of the season - and until last offseason and the discovery of Napoli's avascular necrosis, that was accurate.

With the burden of squatting behind the plate for 60-70 games per season lifted, Napoli successfully exceeded expectations in terms of batting average and on-base percentage, and his power numbers remained pretty steady.

Though it an be a strain to watch Napoli come to the plate during his dry spells, it's 100% worth it when he inevitably heats up. Streaky players are frustrating at times, but Nap made up for it with his better than advertised defense at first base and wholehearted embrace of the Red Sox and Boston more generally.

I was thrilled when I heard that the Red Sox had signed Napoli to a two-year, $32 million dollar deal (I sent several text messages that just read "MIKE NAPOLI," and was able to identify my true friends based on those who didn't need further explanation). I can't wait to see Napoli - and the beard he's reportedly keeping - back next year. 

Ben Cherington - Executive of the Year

©Kayla Chadwick 2013

Red Sox General Manager Ben Cherington has been named the Sporting News Executive of the Year. The award was decided by a voting panel of 31 Major League executives, and this year marks just the fourth time in MLB history that a Red Sox exec earned the honor.

Of the thirty-one votes, Cherington got fifteen, while Neal Huntington of the Pittsburgh Pirates got nine, Dayton Moore of the Kansas City Royals got four, and Frank Wren of the Atlanta Braves got three.

Cherington's award is a testament to how much people love an underdog story. If any team with the payroll capabilities of Boston could be considered an unlikely winner, it was this one. After an unbelievably disastrous 2012, the worst-to-first romp of 2013 was both glorious and unexpected.

Cherington's offseason moves (signing Shane Victorino, Koji Uehara, and Mike Napoli, among others) are certainly to be congratulated, but the true start of the 2013 turnaround came late in 2012, when the Dodgers gave the Red Sox a mulligan on some truly mammoth contracts. Without the trade of Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, and Nick Punto, the Red Sox would never have the chance to win it all in 2013.

So maybe Cherington should send a case of World Series champagne out to the LA front office? Because without them, he doesn't get this award.

Mike Napoli gets white girl wasted

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Mike Napoli really, really enjoyed the Red Sox rolling rally on Saturday morning. The Red Sox first baseman didn't even make it to Hynes Convention Center before stripping off his shirt, to the delight of everyone in the crowd (and Jonny Gomes).

But even after the hours long duckboat ride, Napoli wasn't ready for the festivities to end. Jake Peavy may have celebrated by purchasing a bright green duckboat, but Nap didn't want to be outdone - so he became a Red Sox legend.

If you're a Twitter regular, you probably saw the #DrunkNapoli hashtag popping up on Saturday night, and unlike hashtags like #LaserShow, this wasn't hyperbole, but reality.

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Napoli made his way around the city, hitting up bars left and right. The photo progression shows that he wore at least two different shirts over the course of the evening, but most often returned to his element: half naked.

But where were his teammates? Napoli was short a wingman, stumbling around Boston all on his own. I can't speak for all of Nap's fellow champs, but Shane Victorino decided to celebrate in a more reserved fashion - by grocery shopping at a local Shaw's.

We love the Red Sox... but they love each other more

GIF via Surviving Grady

One of the things Red Sox fans are most famous for is our undeniable (and at times a little creepy) level of devotion to the team. We've all been guilty of letting our fandom get the best of us; indeed, last night on twitter there were several implied offers of sexual favors for the heroes of Game 4... and while most of those were from straight women (maybe including me), that wasn't the case across the board.

But not so fast, Red Sox Nation. If you, like me, want to kiss the glorious beards of our local nine in gratitude, you'll have to get in line, because David Ross has beaten you to the punch.

Ross is just paying it forward: Mike Napoli planted one on the backup catcher during Game 6 of the ALCS, in celebration of Shane Victorino's grand slam.

It's hardly a secret that professional athletes often express their affection for teammates in physical ways. Between good luck butt pats, thanks-for-the-touchdown hugs, and handshakes that are more elaborate than wedding vows, professional sports can be just as homoerotic as your average episode of Glee.

But it's more than business as usual for the 2013 Red Sox. Their love for one another shines through on the bleakest of days - and when they win... well, they take "bromoerotic" to a whole new level.

Napoli sits under National League rules

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Tonight, the Red Sox will take the field in St. Louis. In the absence of a designated hitter spot, starting pitchers must come to the plate - and while pitchers are, as a rule, not good at hitting, this is a particular challenge for American League pitchers, because they almost never get to practice in game situations.

In this year's World Series, the Red Sox need to endure just three games with these rules, but in addition to worrying about how their pitchers will fare, they must choose between David Ortiz and Mike Napoli.

On the surface, it seems like a no-brainer: Ortiz is easily among the greatest DHs to ever play the game. His postseason record is legend, and his defense at first base is more than passable. 

However, Napoli is the second hottest hitter for the Red Sox right now, and without some of his truly masterful picks at first, quite a few Stephen Drew highlight-caliber plays don't get completed.

With the Series tied at 1-1, John Farrell is going with David Ortiz for Game 3. With the possible exception of giving the ball to Craig Breslow on Thursday, Farrell's choices have worked out very well for the Red Sox this postseason.

As much as I'll miss Nap's bat and excellent beard in the lineup, the Red Sox need Big Papi tonight. 

Is it 8:07 yet?

The Red Sox have more fun than your team

Things I learned from Intentional Talk this week:

• Ryan Dempster described Junichi Tazawa’s locker as “a warehouse to a Costco.”
• Clay Buchholz does NOT want to share an ice bath with Josh Beckett.
• Will Middlebrooks says Mike Napoli (sunbathing on the pitchers mound) spends the most time looking in the mirror.
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia says he kissed Skip Schumaker’s wife.
• Jake Peavy would sing “My Heart Will Go On” with Celine Dion at her concert
• Jonny Gomes really wants to take a cross country roadtrip with Peavy, and Peavy was like, “Aiight.”
• Peavy bought the Indian Chief statue from a cigar shop in San Francisco.
• Peavy has vowed that the entire team will take a cross country roadtrip on a duckboat if the Red Sox win the World Series, and the Indian Chief statue is going to drive, and they’ll stop in Vegas to see Celine Dion.
• David Ross has purchased “feminine products” for his wife, and found the experience embarrassing.
• Jonny Gomes on Mike Napoli’s celebration antics: “If you had that body, why would you wear a shirt?” Gomes suggested Napoli play all nine innings shirtless.
• Gomes offered Kevin Millar a job as his “man-nanny.”
• Millar then invited Gomes to a “sleepover” at his hotel.
• This team shares a beard brush.

#GetBeard

Three months ago, I wrote a post extolling the virtues of the various beards of the 2013 Boston Red Sox. It was intended as a whimsical post: I thought the scruffy beards were fun, and fitting for the kind of "anything goes" personality the team was developing. 

It has since become the most viewed post on my blog, as Red Sox fans actively search for information about their favorite bearded baseball team. The Red Sox social media team has finally caught on to this phenomenon, and responded with enthusiasm, producing images like these:

For Twitter

For Facebook

They've introduced a hashtag (now useable on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram) for fans to use when expressing their love for the 2013 Red Sox: #GetBeard.

They're even using the beard-mania to get fans into Fenway (I can't believe attendance is a problem right now, but that's a different issue), at the lowest price I've seen in my lifetime:

That's right, bearded Sox fans: you can see the Red Sox take on the Orioles next Wednesday for just $1! And for the ladies, children, and sparsely whiskered gentlemen, fake beards and even drawn-on beards will get you that same incredibly low ticket price.

None of this would be possible without the incredible beards of the men on the field: though Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes have the fluffiest beards on the team, nearly all of their teammates are giving them a run for their money.

By far the greatest unforeseen consequence of a bearded team is how much they all seem to revel in the beards of their cohorts; every time a bearded player returns to the dugout after a successful play or at-bat, his teammates tug on his beard in jubilation:

It's part of what makes this team so easy to love: the camaraderie is impossible to miss, and their never-give-up attitude and winning record are just icing on the cake. As the Red Sox continue their (hopefully) relentless march back into the playoffs, I'm developing beard envy - and though it's a problem I never anticipated having, I'm totally okay with it.

Winning tactics

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Apparently I was mistaken when I assumed that the Red Sox disliked the West Coast as much as I do. Of course, since my hatred for West Coast road trips burns with the intensity of a thousand suns, it would be highly unlikely that anyone could loathe them nearly as much as me. As far as the Sox go, it actually seems like quite the opposite: they haven't lost a game since the day I tried to pin their losing on geography.

Of course, the team has different ideas about what might affect their win-loss record, and it's nowhere near as mundane as simply playing well or poorly. Apparently while in Seattle Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes took a little rendezvous to the famous Pike Place Market for a meal, and brought back a bouquet of flowers as a prank.

The flowers have had a place in the dugout for all four games since then, and the Red Sox have won every single one of them. Jose Iglesias has been assigned the happy task of transporting the flower arrangement from park to bus to plane to park, and has reportedly been successful in keeping the plants alive.

I don't think anyone on the team has delusions that the colorful good luck charm will make it through the All-Star break, but it's likely that it will at least last until tomorrow evening. Given the results of his last few outings, Jon Lester could certainly use all the luck he can get for tonight's start - hopefully the magic of the Pike's Place flowers can last just a little bit longer.

With West Coast trip looming, Sox earn another win

Photo via Boston.com

The Red Sox completed a three game sweep of the San Diego Padres with an 8-2 win at Fenway Park this afternoon. Rookie Allen Webster earned his first career win with a quality start, six innings pitched with just two runs allowed on a hot and humid Independence Day in Boston.

Webster had some serious run support from all over the lineup: leadoff man Jacoby Ellsbury scored three times (once on his third home run of the season), Mike Napoli scored twice, and Shane Victorino, Brandon Snyder, and number nine batter Jose Iglesias scored once each, Snyder on his first homer of the season.

The Red Sox are kicking off a ten-game West Coast road trip tomorrow in Anaheim, where they'll play three games against the Angels, then heading to Seattle for four against the Mariners, and finishing up their tour with three games in Oakland before returning to the East Coast for the All-Star Break. Both the Angels and the Mariners are playing below .500, while the A's are in first place and currently claim a 50-36 record. Doubtless all three teams have better records than they would if the Astros hadn't been moved into their division.

Even so, it's important that the Sox maintain their winning ways while we struggle to stay awake during the seven of ten games that will end past 1am on the East Coast. John Farrell emphasized the importance of this road trip after today's victory, and with John Lackey dealing, Jon Lester seemingly back on track, and rookies stepping up, I'd say the Sox are likely to maintain their momentum heading into the All-Star Break.

Red Sox demolish Yankees

On a night when I really needed a save for my fantasy team (and I have both Andrew Bailey and Mariano Rivera on my roster), no save was necessary in the Bronx. The Red Sox obliterated Phil Hughes and the Yankees 11-1 on the back of a grand slam from Mike Napoli and a three run homer from Daniel Nava.

Napoli's slam was a real stroke of karma, as Hughes had intentionally walked David Ortiz to load the bases in the third inning before Napoli took a 2-2 pitch and deposited it into the right-center bleachers. The Red Sox were already on top by one run by that point, as Mike Carp had driven in Jackie Bradley Jr. earlier in the inning.

Things fell apart even more for the Yankees in the ninth inning as Stephen Drew homered to put the Sox on top 9-1, and then Jarrod Saltalamachhia doubled and Jose Iglesias knocked an RBI single. Bradley added a single of his own before Nava grounded out, but got the RBI as Iglesias came around to score. The inning finally ended with Jonny Gomes grounding back to the mound.

The Yankees could only muster a single run off of Sox starter Felix Doubront - doubly nice to see since Doubront has been rather less than impressive at times this season. Doubront went six full innings before giving way to Junichi Tazawa who pitched a clean seventh inning, and then Craig Breslow, who pitched a clean eighth. Koji Uehara took the mound for the Sox in the ninth, and finished the game up economically, sitting down the last three Yankees batters with just twelve pitches.

Sox fall to Yankees

It's always rough to go into Yankee Stadium and lose the opening game of a series - especially when your ace faces off against their ace and theirs comes out on top. Sadly for the Red Sox, starter Jon Lester had flashes of brilliance where he sent Yankee after Yankee back to the dugout, but his few lapses were more than enough as CC Sabathia gave up just a single run in seven and a third innings.

Though the Sox kept things interesting in the ninth inning, with back-to-back hits by Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz with just one out, Mike Napoli struck out and then Stephen Drew grounded the ball back to Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, who made the play to end the game. Dustin Pedroia scored the only run for the Red Sox in the seventh inning, and had three hits on the night, continuing to tear things up on the field despite the UCL tear in his left hand.

The Sox know as well as anyone that if you leave your scoring against the Yankees untl the end of the game, it's likely that your chances will be limited. Mariano Rivera is legendary for a reason, and he doesn't blow many save opportunities. Tonight was no exception, even though the Sox managed to bring the tying run to the plate.

The Red Sox will still maintain sole possession of first place even after losing tonight's game to the Yankees - but the Yanks do pick up a full game in the standings, trailing the Sox by just a single game with two more games to play in this weekend series. Tomorrow's game will see Felix Doubront facing off against Phil Hughes.

Lester stumbles in Chicago

For a few wonderful moments in the top of the seventh inning, it looked like the Red Sox bats were going to bail out Jon Lester. With the Red Sox trailing 6-2 to the White Sox, Will Middlebrooks came to the plate with nobody out and two men on base, and doubled to left field scoring David Ortiz and Mike Napoli.

Sadly, four runs were all the Red Sox could muster, and it wasn't enough on a night when Jon Lester didn't have it. It's something of a pattern for Lester against Chicago's AL team, as the lefty is just 4-5 in his career with a 5.43 ERA in ten starts - much below his career stats against all teams, 91-49 with a 3.73 ERA.

It's actually reassuring that Lester has a pattern of mediocrity against the White Sox - I'd much rather have him predictably struggle against this one team than have last night's performance be a harbinger of things to come. A one-time poor start that can be explained is preferable to a mysterious downward spiral any day of the week, and though Lester's chokefest seriously damaged my fantasy stats, I'm confident that he'll make it up to me in his next outing.

Sox struggle at the Trop

Despite getting off to a great start when David Ortiz crushed a three run homer int he top of the first inning, the Red Sox lost their third straight game and suffered their ninth loss in the last eleven games at Tropicana Field this evening. John Lackey looked great for the first couple of innings, and then crumbled in the fourth.

The Rays scored all five of their runs in the fourth inning - two on a botched popup that got lost in the lights and catwalks of the Trop and dropped between Dustin Pedroia and Mike Napoli. Somehow, that play was scored as a hit, and those two go-ahead runs would be more than enough for the Rays.

Remarkably, the Red Sox are still third in the AL East standings, which speaks more to the incredible success they had in April than anything they have attempted to accomplish since. John Lackey looked pretty fantastic before his fourth inning struggle - just as he looked solid in his last start before his own throwing error signalled the beginning of the end in a similar meltdown.

Jon Lester will get the start tomorrow for the Sox against David Price. Lester is 5-0 with a 2.73 ERA this season, including a complete game shutout (just one hit away from a perfect game) in his last outing, while David Price has been underperforming thus far. With an ERA creeping up near five, and just a single win to his name, Price is not exactly the fearsome competitor he's been in years past. Still, lately the Red Sox have found all kinds of ways to lose, so I won't take the outcome of tomorrow's game for granted.

Can you believe it?

Even after last night's loss to the Rangers, the Red Sox still have two more wins than any other team in baseball. A month into the season, the Sox are in first place in the AL East, two-and-a-half games up on the second place Yankees. Especially after the misery of last season, this start has been wonderful for Red Sox fan - especially those of us who live in the city and can take advantage of low ticket prices.

I don't for a minute expect tickets to stay affordable for long, especially if the Red Sox continue anywhere close to the pace they're on. And despite the stuggles from Felix Doubront that we've been seeing, the core of the pitching staff is as solid as can be - led by Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester.

Though the crazy production we've been seeing from David Ortiz (.465 batting average in eleven games) is certainly unsustainable, I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit well over .300 for the season. Mike Napoli is taking to first base like a fish to water, and in his first season where he doesn't spend a ton of time crouching behind the plate, his offensive numbers - and the Red Sox - are the beneficiaries.

You never really know how a season will shake out - in 2011, we had a team proclaimed the "greatest ever" during spring training, and then suffered through the worst collapse in history in September. This year, expectations were tempered, to say the least, but the Sox have the best record in baseball so far. I'll leave you with one final thought: the last time the Red Sox had the best April record was 2007 - and before that, 2004.

Sox topple A's

Despite giving up five walks and three earned runs over 6.2 innings, Felix Doubront earned his second win of the season this evening against the Oakland A's. The Athletics rolled into Fenway Park with a season record of 12-7, but it's worth noting that they've already played three games against the Mariners and six against the Astros (seriously, the Astros presence in the AL West is a literal GIFT to the other teams in that division).

It' always nice to start off a series with a win - and the Red Sox have done that in eery series so far in 2013. After yesterday's doubleheader, it was important for Doubront to log significant innings and preserve the bullpen, and though he struggled a little bit to be efficient, he made it into the seventh inning, with a sizable cushion provided by the offense.

Mike Napoli had a grand slam, and Will Middlebrooks made a start at breaking out of his slump with a three run homerun as the two led the offense to a nine-run outburst. The bullpen effort was spearheaded by Junichi Tazawa and Andrew Bailey, in what was truly a team effort. The Red Sox are first in the AL East, two games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles, and two-and-a-half ahead of the Yankees.

No projection for Lyle Overbay

2011: 121 games, .234 BA, .310 OBP, .360 SLG, 9 HR, 47 RBI
2012 projection: 113 games, .248 BA, .335 OBP, .404 SLG 9 HR, 41 RBI
2012: 131 games, .259 BA, .331 OBP, .397 SLG, 2 HR, 10 RBI
2013 projection: [None]

After a rather disappointing end to the 2012 season, Bill James and his team didn't do projections for Lyle Overbay in the 2013 Handbook. The Red Sox have only signed him to a minor league deal, with an invitation to spring training.

Overbay will make a good counterpart for the right-handed Mike Napoli, and is by all accounts, a solid defensive first baseman - assuming he makes the team out of spring training.  The Red Sox willbe Overbay's seventh team in the majors, but just his second American League team, as he spent 2006-2010 in Toronto.

Overbay has a lot of experience in different clubhouses, and his presence could be a good thing for the Red Sox this season - in addition to possibly platooning with Napoli against tough righties.

Mike Napoli and Avascular Necrosis

It's official. Mike Napoli has signed with the Red Sox for one year and $5 million, with bonuses up to $8 million for staying on the field despite his hip problems.

According to Napoli's agent (via Boston.com's Extra Bases blog), Napoli has been diagnosed with avascular necrosis in both hips. From WebMD:

Avascular necrosis (AVN), also called osteonecrosis, aseptic necrosis, or ischemic bone necrosis, is a condition that occurs when there is loss of blood to the bone. Because bone is living tissue that requires blood, an interruption to the blood supply causes bone to die. If not stopped, this process eventually causes the bone to collapse...

In its early stages, AVN typically cause no symptoms; however, as the disease progresses it becomes painful. At first, you may experience pain when you put pressure on the affected bone. Then, pain may become more constant. If the disease progresses and the bone and surrounding joint collapse, you may experience severe pain that interferes with your ability to use your joint. The time between the first symptoms and collapse of the bone may range from several months to more than a year.

 According to Napoli's agent, he doesn't have any pain or symptoms yet, so it's very possible that he'll make it through the season without missing time, given the timeline of the disease. He's being treated by   "a metabolic bone disease specialist," and hopefully that will stave of symptoms for many years, because he's just 31 years old, and should have a long career ahead of him - playing more first base and less behind the plate should certainly help.

2013 Bill James Projections - Mike Napoli

2011: 113 games, .320 BA, .414 OBP, .631 SLG, 30 HR, 75 RBI
2012 projection: 131 games, .271 BA, .364 OBP, .537 SLG, 31 HR, 83 RBI
2012: 108 games, .227 BA, .343 OBP, .469 SLG, 24 HR, 56 RBI
2013 projection: 127 games, .248 BA, .350 OBP, .498 SLG, 29 HR, 75 RBI

As I'm sure you are all aware, yesterday the Red Sox inked Mike Napoli to a three year, $39 million contract. He'll mostly be playing first base, but he can certainly take his turn behind the plate, as well.

I really like this contract. Napoli has a good bat, and while he's entering his age-31 season, spending more time at first base than catcher should only help his numbers (he played more than half of his games at catcher the last two years).

This also gives the Red Sox even more depth at catcher, allowing them to use one of their many backstops (remember when we couldn't get ONE backup catcher?) for one of their various other needs - pitcher, outfield, whatever.

By all accounts, Mike Napoli is also a great clubhouse presence, and while that certainly wouldn't fill the void of an unproductive player, when added to a package like Napoli it's a nice bonus.