A little late: An Andy Pettitte reaction

So the title for this post is two-fold: first, because I'm a terrible blogger and this post is wayyy overdue. Sorry. Second, because Pettitte's return is a little too late in his career.  The man will be forty years old in June, and given his history, you have to believe there will be some suspicions if he's too successful this season, especially with his recent history of muscle injuries.

Because he was ostensibly "retired" last season, Bill James has no 2012 projection for Pettitte.  He does, however, have a projection for 2011 based on his last year pitching in the majors, 2010.  James projected 23 starts, 140 IP, 9 wins, 7 losses, and an ERA of 3.86.  These are very respectable numbers - but if we take into account what has changed since late 2010 when James made these projections, I think we can assume they might be slightly lower.

Pettitte has not played in a major league ballgame since 2010, and for all he says that he's been throwing at home, I think we can assume he  will backslide some from the 11-3, 3.28 ERA performance from that year (which is interesting in itself, as it followed four years of ERAs over 4).

He is also looking at extended Spring Training, as he showed up out of retirement well after his teammates had reported - if all goes according to plan, he's looking at a mid-May return, cutting that innings estimate down. Pettitte also lacks the luxury of an assured rotation spot that he would have had in 2011, and has to fight his way into a rotation that is already overcrowded (as a Sox fan, I hope they make room for him by taking out someone young and strong).

There's really no way to guess how Pettitte's return will be - whether it's triumphant or embarassing will be up to his readiness, the state of the team when he returns to it, and Manaer Joe Girardi's decisions concerning his playing time.  But it should be interesting - obviously, the players from the late-90s glory days can't stay away - perhaps we should be on the lookout for Jorge Posada to renege on his retirement next season.

Yankees' 1990s Core 4 now 50% retired

Unless you're living under a rock (and I won't judge you if you are), you've probably heard that New York Yankees' catcher Jorge Posada retired today. Posada was drafted out of Puerto Rico in 1990 - I was less than six months old - and debuted five years later on September 4, 1995.  Needless to say I cannot remember a Yankees team without Posada behind the plate.

He'll end his career with a .273 BA, .374 OBP, .474 SLG, 275 HR, and 1065 RBI - extremely solid numbers for someone who squatted behind the plate an average of 93 games per season (when you take out his first two seasons and his last, that average jumps to 112).

With Pettitte now gone for an entire season, and Posada bowing out, the only remnants of the dream teams of the late 1990's are Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera (who we all know is some sort of android and will never get old).  Even as a Red Sox fan, I came of age hearing these names and seeing these faces in magazines and newspapers and on television - and it certainly feels strange to know that I won't be seeing them anymore.

In a way, Pettitte's retirement was less jarring, as he spent three years in Houston just as I was getting old enough to stay up until the end of baseball games - he wasn't a Yankee lifer like Posada and the others.  Even as it will be strange to see the Yankees without Posada, he is making the best choice for himself and his team.  All too often in baseball, we see players trying to hold on just a few years too long, claiming that they'll regain their stroke with the right offseason diet plan or workout.  As painful as it is to see your heroes retire, it is so much worse to watch them struggle on in denial.

Posada had a taste of that struggle last season, batting just .235 with 14 homers and 44 RBI, and managed just one game behind the plate.  His retirement, though emotional for Yankees' players and fans, is the right decision.

But just for fun, let's look at what Bill James projected for Posada, had he participated in the 2012 season: 110 games, .246 BA, .343 OBP, .416 SLG, 12 HR, and 47 RBI.  Apparently James foresaw Posada sliding slowly into mediocrity - but Posada had other plans, and made his final, tearful farewell this morning in the Bronx.