2015 Bill James Projections: Shane Victorino

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2011: 132 games, .279 BA, .355 OBP, .491 SLG, 17 HR, 61 RBI
2012 projection: 149 games, .277 BA, .344 OBP, .441 SLG, 17 HR, 64 RBI
2012: 154 games, .255 BA, .321 OBP, .383 SLG, 11 HR, 55 RBI
2013 projection: 155 games. .269 BA, .338 OBP, .418 SLG, 14 HR, 59 RBI
2013: 122 games, .294 BA, .351 OBP, .451 SLG, 15 HR, 61 RBI
2014 projection: 148 games, .270 BA, .336 OBP, .415 SLG, 14 HR, 58 RBI
2014: 30 games, .268 BA, .303 OBP, .382 SLG, 2 HR, 12 RBI
2015 projection: 129 games, .265 BA, .326 OBP, .410 SLG, 12 HR, 50 RBI

Shane Victorino's 2013 was derailed early on with hamstring and back problems, and then he underwent season-ending back surgery in August. In 2013, he was an integral part of the World Series run, but with just one year left on his deal and a crowded outfield situation, we may be saying goodbye to the Flyin' Hawaiian sooner rather than later.

I like Victorino a lot, and I hope he sticks around at least through the end of his deal, but this might be one of those situations where the Red Sox showcase him a lot during spring training and early on in the season before dealing him to a team in need to open up some space in the outfield.

Bill James and his team project a return to form for Victorino in 2015, but it's hard to guess what any player will do after such an extended time away from baseball activities. The Red Sox owe Victorino $13 million in 2015, so they'll be looking for a trade partner that might be willing to take on a significant portion of that money.

If Victorino does get to stay around, that salary is likely to be a factor in determining playing time - you don't pay a guy that much to ride the bench four days a week. Victorino is a great clubhouse guy, and he's seriously embraced playing in Boston, so his presence might help some of the young players and transplants adjust.

Wherever Victorino ends the 2015 season, he's sure to be a solid contributor. But here's hoping he ends his Red Sox tenure the way he started it: celebrating a World Series victory on the field at Fenway Park.

2015 Bill James Projections: Joe Kelly

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2012: 5-7, 16 starts, 107 IP, 3.53 ERA, 36 BB, 75 SO
2013 projection: 4-4, 0 starts, 67 IP, 4.16 ERA, 23 BB, 48 SO
2013: 10-5, 15 starts, 124 IP, 2.69 ERA, 44 BB, 79 SO
2014 projection: 6-7, 14 starts, 118 IP, 4.12 ERA, 41 BB, 81 SO
2014: 6-4, 17 starts, 96.1 IP, 4.20 ERA, 42 BB, 66 SO
2015 projection: 8-11, 28 starts, 172 IP, 4.19 ERA,70 BB, 117 SO

Joe Kelly came to the Red Sox from the Cardinals at last year's trade deadline as part of the John Lackey trade. Until then, Red Sox fans might have remembered him as the guy who started World Series Game 3 in 2013.

The Cardinals won that contest, though Kelly's 5.1 IP, 2 earned runs performance wasn't enough for him to get the W. In the end, of course, the Red Sox won that World Series, and Joe Kelly probably left Fenway Park feeling incredibly disappointed, not knowing he'd be traded for the Game 6 (and World Series) clinching pitcher just nine months later.

Kelly had a bit of a rough time last season, and Bill James and his team project him to have an almost identical ERA in 2015, albeit with a significant jump in innings pitched. You might have heard that Kelly has other ideas about his 2015 potential: the 26-year-old has predicted he'll be the American League Cy Young winner this year.

While I'm not ready to jump on the end of season award winner bandwagon yet, there are some compelling reasons to believe Kelly could have a breakout year in 2015. For starters, his 2014 was marred by an early hamstring injury, and then he had to get used to the AL after being traded.

Now healthy and with a few months of facing AL lineups under his belt, Kelly will be able to start the season in his comfort zone. It's also worth noting that now that he's made such a bold prediction, he'll have a serious incentive to reach it; pitchers are notoriously ego-driven, and Kelly has set himself a laudable goal.

But perhaps the greatest thing about Joe Kelly's still-new Red Sox tenure is his age: just 26, he's eligible for arbitration after this season, but under team control until he can first file for free agency in 2019. Even if his first full season in Boston turns out to be disappointing, he has plenty of time for improvement.

2015 Bill James Projection: Rick Porcello

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2010: 10-12, 27 starts, 162.2 IP, 4.92 ERA, 38 BB, 84 SO
2011 projection: 10-11, 29 starts, 188 IP, 4.21 ERA, 52 BB, 102 SO
2011: 14-9, 31 starts, 182 IP, 4.75 ERA, 46 BB, 104 SO
2012 projection: 10-11, 31 starts, 190 IP, 4.22 ERA, 49 BB, 105 SO
2012: 10-12, 31 starts, 176.1 IP, 4.59 ERA, 44 BB, 107 SO
2013 projection: 9-11, 31 starts, 178 IP, 4.50 ERA, 45 BB, 102 SO
2013: 13-8, 29 starts, 177 IP, 4.32 ERA, 42 BB, 142 SO
2014 projection: 9-11, 30 starts, 186 IP, 4.31 ERA, 45 BB, 117 SO
2014: 15-13, 31 starts, 204.2 IP, 3.43 ERA, 41 BB, 129 SO
2015 projection: 11-13, 32 starts, 209 IP, 4.00 ERA, 45 BB, 132 SO

It's curious to me that Bill James and his team project Rick Porcello's ERA will go up significantly next season, considering he's consistently improved in that area every season since 2010.

Porcello is a member of the much-debated and sometimes-maligned 2015 Red Sox rotation. The group is often referred to as a staff of number 3 starters, but I think that's unfair. Is Rick Porcello a bona fide ace? Absolutely not [yet]. But he could certainly be a solid number two.

Rick Porcello was an important member of the vaunted Detroit Tigers staff for the last few seasons, and while his contributions were sometimes forgotten behind those of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, there were times when Porcello outperformed them both.

All of this, plus the fact that Porcello is just 26 years old, makes him a fantastic addition to the Red Sox. The downside is that he's a year out from free agency, and apparently uninterested in discussing an extension.

But with a potential payday on the horizon, the Red Sox will be getting a young, talented pitcher with an incredibly large incentive for giving the 2015 season everything he has in the tank.

I think James' projections for Porcello are underestimating him. Despite the naysayers and the "We should have signed Shields" whiners, I expect big things from Porcello this season.