World Series Review: I Suck at Predictions

 Despite worries from baseball elite that this year’s World Series would be boring and unprofitable due to the absence of large-market teams full of superstars, it turned out to be one of the most exciting Fall Classics in years.  Their worries were certainly valid, as the biggest audiences will typically tune in when teams from either coast are involved, and this Series was, as Sports Illustrated put it, “Central Casting,” with both the AL and NL Pennants going to teams far from the coasts, the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals, respectively.

The network carrying the Series also doesn’t begin to make a profit unless the two teams play five or more games in the best of seven series: since they pay Major League Baseball so much money to gain the exclusive televising rights, the advertising revenue after just four games (like the sweeps in 2004, 2005, and 2007) barely covers their cost.  If a Series reaches seven games, like this one, the network can charge huge amounts of money on advertising slots to get a return on their large investment.

 The games themselves were particularly compelling: on one side you had the Rangers, who have never won a World Series (including in their time as the Washington Senators), who were back after losing to the San Francisco Giants in last year’s Fall Classic, and who had been the no-doubt winners of the AL West for quite some time.  Across the diamond you had the Cinderella story:  the Cardinals had been ten games back in the Wild Card race with a month to play, and had just a 1.1% chance of even seeing the playoffs, before taking down the Braves to make it in, then the favored Phillies (who had been practically crowned World Champs in February), and the Brewers.

While Texas hunted fruitlessly for it’s first title, St. Louis tried to provide more incentive for free-agent to be Albert Pujols to stay with the team this offseason, and it might have worked – when asked if a repeat would be possible in 2012, Pujols grinned and said, “Why not?” 

The Series it self was compelling all the way through, as the two teams traded victories through Game 4, and then Texas gained a 3-2 advantage by winning Game 5.  If you didn’t watch what happened next, you missed a hell of a game.  Game 6 was one for the ages: the Rangers were one strike away from winning their first title – twice.  They had a two-run lead in both the ninth and tenth innings, and then David Freese and Lance Berkman (both with two strikes against them) batted in the tying runs.  Freese would hit a walkoff home run in the bottom of the eleventh inning to send the Series to its seventh game.

 After the drama of Game 6, Game 7 was slightly less exciting, as the Cards earned the lead in the third and never relinquished it.  Hometown boy David Freese was named World Series MVP, and the city of St. Louis earned the right to party in the streets for the second time in five years.  Despite the absence of a big-market team, this World Series was one for the ages – it’s only too bad that it’s over.

Surprise! John Lackey "needs" Tommy John

So there's your answer, Red Sox Nation.  While we've all been wishing for Theo to take John Lackey with him to Chicago, new GM Ben Cherington and the front office had their own plan in mind.  It was obvious to everyone that Lackey simply could not spend 2012 in a Red Sox uniform, especially once you added the allegations (and then confessions) of drinking and general gametime shenanigans to a moribund record that spoke for itself.

So John Lackey, like Daisuke Matsuzaka before him, will disappear onto the disabled list for the foreseeable future, while the Red Sox staff looks to clean up their act - and their collective reputation.  It is a rather neat solution, though it won't save John Henry and Co. any money.  I'm guessing they shopped him around, saw absolutely no one was biting, and decided to relegate the big righty to baseball purgatory.

I know many of you had worked out elaborate trade scenarios for getting rid of Lackey, and some had genuine merit for all parties involved, but you can't really be surprised that no other team wanted to take a chance on the overpaid hurler.  Lackey just turned thirty-three, he has a body type that doesn't age well (even before the now infamous weight gain of 2011), and he hasn't performed at a particularly high level in over two years.

Add to all of this the fact that he is owed more than $45 million for the next three years (a huge sum for a pitcher who has never logged a season ERA lower than 3.01, and that just once - his career ERA is over 4), and Lackey is a pitching pariah, without even tackling the allegations that he was one of the ringleaders of the *ahem* unprofessional behavior in the clubhouse this season.

All of these factors make for the perfect equation for the baseball cynic: banishment to pitcher hell.  Of course, Lackey has had documented elbow trouble, something the Sox brass were aware of when they signed him, which is why the team option for 2015 will now be at the Major League minimum (this vested with the news of Tommy John surgery).

This seems like a win-win for fans.  We've all been screaming to get him gone, and this will certainly see him out of sight for an extended period of time; the money is a bummer, but the Sox would have been eating most of the contract even if they had managed to scrounge a trade partner.  If the surgery is particularly successful, perhaps Lackey will return in 18 months better than we've seen him, and hopefully having eaten a large serving of humble pie (and very little actual pie).

And if not? Well, I'm sure management can come up with another creative solution for the John Lackey problem when the time comes. For now, it's out of sight, out of mind. Hasta luego, Lackey... I won't be missing you.

"World Series munchies"

Trinity's meal plan is advertising "game-time munchies." I do enjoy the Rangers and Cardinals logos slathered in butter, though. So classy.