Josh, Jon, and John: Three Aces?

Like many of you, I follow several baseball sites, both on Twitter and Facebook, and I have more than a few bookmarked on my web browser. Many of them are primarily about the Red Sox, but I do follow a fair amount that cover all of MLB, and I saw an interesting argument popping up on Facebook this evening over the best rotation in baseball.

Being the homer I am proud to be, I would obviously say the Red Sox, but I'm willing to listen to debate. However, one of the posters contended that the Red Sox didn't have even one legitimate ace, but three #2 pitchers. This is, at best, absurd. Let's look at the numbers of the Red Sox top 3 starters, shall we?

Joshua Patrick Beckett:


Career: 206 (average) IP, 108-68 (.609 W-L%), 3.79 ERA, 1330 SO
2009: 212.1 IP, 17-6 (.739 W-L%), 3.86 ERA, 199 SO
2010 Bill James Projection: 221 IP, 15-9, 3.62 ERA, 206 SO
Most similar pitcher: John Lackey

Jonathan Tyler Lester:


Career: 207 (average) IP, 42-16 (.724 W-L%), 3.66 ERA, 487 SO
2009: 203.1 IP, 15-8 (.652 W-L%), 3.41 ERA, 225 SO
2010 Bill James Projection: 206 IP, 13-10, 3.84 ERA, 184 SO
Most similar pitcher by age: Johan Santana (!)

John Derran Lackey:


Career: 219 (average) IP, 102-71 (.590 W-L%), 3.81 ERA, 1201 SO
2009: 176.1 IP, 11-8 (.579 W-L%), 3.83 ERA, 139 SO
2010 Bill James Projections: 208 IP, 13-10, 3.81 ERA, 166 SO
Most similar pitcher: Josh Beckett

Now, let's compare these numbers to those of the best pitcher in MLB, one we can ALL agree is a bona fide ACE:

Harry Leroy Halladay [I guess we know why he goes by "Roy," eh?]:


Career: 232 (average) IP, 148- 76 (.661 W-L%), 3.43 ERA, 1495 SO
2009: 239 IP, 17-10 (.630 W-L%), 2.79 ERA, 208 SO
2010 Bill James Projection: 240 IP, 17-10, 3.23 ERA, 179 SO
Most similar pitcher: Tim Hudson

Clearly, a pitcher doesn't have to measure up to Roy Halladay to be an ace, because if that was the case, he would be the only one. So what makes an "ace?" All three of the Red Sox players in question have won clinching games of the World Series (all, interestingly enough, at age 23): Beckett for the 2003 Marlins , Lester for the 2007 Red Sox, and Lackey for the 2002 Angels. Now, you can't hold that against Halladay, as he was stuck in purgatory, pitching for the Blue Jays. However, credit must be given to the three in question for pitching so well, at such a young age, in high-pressure situations.

As far as straight-up statistics go, Jon Lester is probably the ace of the Red Sox staff, regardless of his actual position in the rotation. [It is interesting to note that Bill James, while very accurate in his predictions for Lackey and Beckett, severely underestimated Lester last year.] Lackey and Beckett are almost carbon copies of each other statistically, and either could be the number one pitcher on nearly 2/3 of MLB teams, while I would take Lester against just about anyone in baseball.

Are all three of the Red Sox top starters aces? Maybe not. But there's no way in hell you can label all three of them #2's - especially in what might be a contract year for Beckett (or a year when he has to prove he deserves his extension). In any case, the fact that we can even be having this conversation is exciting... Is it Sunday yet?

Optimism or Idiocy?

According to this Boston.com poll (screengrabbed by me), there are 28 people out there who think that the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to win the NL Central. In case you were wondering, the last time Pittsburgh had a winning season of any kind was nearly twenty years ago, in 1992 (96-66), when some guy named Tim Wakefield was on the team. The best the Pirates have done since then was 1997, when they went 79-83.

I appreciate the optimism (or morbid humor attempt) by those 28 fans, but in recent years the best thing to be said of the Pirates is that they serve as a wonderful farm system for the other 29 teams. In a state of perpetual rebuilding, the once-proud franchise routinely ships off their only good player in exchange for a few prospects... and once those prospects have developed, the process begins anew!


It's too bad, but at least Pittsburgh has the Steelers and Penguins to tide them over for the foreseeable future: if the Pirates win the NL Central, I'll eat Jim Leyland's awesome Pirates hat.

Not-So-Big Papi?

Today was the first day of classes after Spring Break, and there were some glitches, as always. I'm the TA for a 9am class, and after a phone call from the professor warning me that he would be late, I showed up to find out that the classroom was locked, even to the professor when he fought his way through traffic. So, while waiting for maintenance, you might think we would talk about the course material (American Government). I'm sorry to tell you that assumption would be false: we talked about baseball, of course!

I was (not unusually) the only female involved in the discussion, which was interesting to say the least. My classmates have some definitive opinions, the most memorable of which was "Papi's done. The guy sucks."

On one hand, the speaker (who had spent his break at Spring Training) had something of a point: David Ortiz's career is clearing winding down, and as much as he protests he has something left, his Spring numbers have been less than encouraging (.224 BA with 3 HRs in 49 ABs). However, as Tito has mentioned multiple times, Spring Training numbers don't mean too much, and Papi had a monster stretch run last season - if you predicted that he would finish with 28 bombs and 99 RBIs after that atrocious start, I'm going to start calling you Nostradamus.

As David's shirt says: "It's not how you start... But how you finish."

Ortiz is in a tough spot: Theo has made it clear that the Red Sox will not be as patient with him this year, and if fans are ready to categorically dismiss him, that's not a good sign. When I heard my classmate disparage Papi this morning, it made me sad. First, because it was part of an overall gripe about a "weak" lineup, which I've already addressed, but mostly because I'm not ready to let go of the old David Ortiz.

Lest you forget, David Ortiz is the most clutch hitter in Red Sox history - and he has the hardware to prove it.

David Ortiz was one of the twenty-five. The men that should never have to buy a drink in New England again. And Ortiz wasn't some bench guy or role player - he delivered some of the most memorable postseason hits in the 21st century, on the way to breaking an 86-year-old "curse."

Maybe Papi's productive days are over. Perhaps he can't play at the level necessary to help the 2010 version of the Boston Red Sox. But even if that's true, he deserves our respect. Are we so short-sighted that we'll forget what he did for us? I'm not advocating for Tito to play him if he isn't up to par, but he deserves to go out with some dignity. Personally, I'm hoping he has an adequate year, then rides off into the sunset - perhaps with another ring to show for it.