2015 Bill James Projections: David Ortiz

Source

2011 projection: 151 games, .261 BA, .366 OBP, .509 SLG, 33 HR, 112 RBI

2011: 146 games, .309 BA, .398 OBP, .554 SLG, 29 HR, 96 RBI

2012 projection: 150 games, .277 BA, .378 OBP, .517 SLG, 30 HR, 104 RBI

2012: 90 games, .318 BA, .415 OBP, .611 SLG, 23 HR, 60 RBI

2013 projection: 147 games, .283 BA, .386 OBP, .533 SLG, 32 HR, 103 RBI

2013: 137 games, .309 BA, .395 OBP, .564 SLG, 30 HR, 103 RBI

2014 projection: 146 games, .287 BA, .384 OBP, .531 SLG, 30 HR, 98 RBI

2014: 142 games, .263 BA, .355 OBP, .517 SLG, 35 HR, 104 RBI

2015 projection: 144 games, .275 BA, .371 OBP, .517 SLG, 32 HR, 102 RBI

David Ortiz's batting average might be the only metric by which he shows his age, and it's still well within the acceptable range. The legendary lefty's power numbers are perennially strong, and he's as beloved by fans as he was a decade ago.

The Red Sox are one of the few teams left in the American League that employ a true DH; most other clubs use the DH spot to give players a day or two to rest without being pulled from the lineup. 

Players like Adam Dunn or Victor Martinez might play their share of games as the DH, but they're coming off careers as position players. David Ortiz, on the other hand, has been a designated hitter far longer than he ever played first base - and he's excellent at it.

I'm not worried about Big Papi in 2015 - he's done a reasonable job meeting - and often surpassing - Bill James' projections in the last few years. Someday soon, we will have to face the reality of David Ortiz's baseball mortality. But today is not that day.

Career DHs: A dying breed

With David Ortiz out for at least the first few weeks of the season, Manager John Farrell is in a bit of a pickle - and he knows it:

"We don’t have another David Ortiz," the manager said. "We’ll probably look at some matchups as we plan against a given starter on that day. ... You can keep guys a little more fresh." 

It actually makes a lot of sense in the absence of a franchise player like Ortiz to use the DH spot to rest and rotate others, rather than panicking and signing a high-priced, under-performing replacement. Of course, the beginning of the season is when players typically need the least rest - but it's also much less damaging to the team to lose a player like Ortiz right now than it would be in September.

The trend for teams in the American League has lately been using the designated hitter position as a place to send aging sluggers who have outlived their usefulness defensively, or a place to rotate several aging players in order to keep their bats in the lineup and their creaky knees protected.

In keeping Ortiz as their exclusive DH, the Red Sox are pretty unique, and so the situation as it is now is actually something much more typical among their AL counterparts. Come the end of Ortiz's career, it is unlikely that the Red Sox will sign another full time DH - versatility is much too important to them. In that vein, we can see the first part of the season as a dress rehearsal of sorts.

The end of interleague as we know it?

Baseball is a strange sport. In most sports, your goal is to take the ball (or puck), and carry it past the defenders, across the court/ice/field to score. In baseball you're still trying to get the ball past the defenders, but scoring runs with your body - back in the exact place you started. Major League Baseball is pretty strange even among other major professional sports, in that it's actually comprised of two leagues, with significantly different rules.

 Obviously, I'm talking about the designated hitter rule: the National League has the pitcher hit, and the American League sits the pitcher down and gets an extra offensive player in the lineup.  Because interleague games are played with home field rules, the American League pitchers typically get drilled in the finer points of hitting (mostly sacrifice bunts and how not to get injured swinging the bat and running to first) in the weeks before interleague play starts.

But due to the Astros shift from the NL to the AL, interleague play will no longer be limited to two stints before the All-Star Game. No, now that there are six divisions of five teams, scheduling will require one interleague contest each day, meaning that AL pitchers must be prepared to hit about once a month all season.

For instance, the Red Sox pitchers will have their first taste of batting in interleague at the end of April, with a two-game series in Philadelphia, then they'll head to San Francisco for a three-game set against the defending champs and to LA to play three against the Dodgers in late August. The last chance for Red Sox pitchers to make their case for the Silver Slugger award will come in the second-to-last series of the season, two games in Colorado at the end of September.

All in all, the Red Sox will have to do without the DH for just ten games - but at random intervals. Joel Sherman of the New York Post thinks that the overhaul in scheduling is bound to lead to more pitcher injuries, and eventually the end of pitchers hitting in any league. The players union would be much more likely to accept an expansion of the DH role, because it allows aging sluggers to prolong their career.

Personally, I think it will be a sad day indeed when some pitcher steps up to the plate for the last time. I understand the practicality of phasing out the rule disparities between the two leagues in this manner, but at its heart baseball is a game of nostalgia. Every rule change meets resistance (ranging in severity from the horrible threats faced by the great Jackie Robinson to the minor chorus of whining about last year's playoff expansion), but over time most fans come to realize that change can be good - while still reminiscing about the good old days.