2015 Bill James Projections: Mookie Betts

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2014: 52 games, .291 BA, .368 OBP, .444 SLG, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 7 SB
2015 projection: 154 games, .321 BA, .405 OBP, .493 SLG, 15 HR, 76 RBI, 40 SB

Despite the very crowded Red Sox outfield heading into spring training, Bill James and his team expect Mookie Betts to burst onto the Red Sox scene and never look back. Betts made his major league debut in June of last year, and bounced between Pawtucket and Boston a few times before finishing the season with the Red Sox.

When Betts was in the lower levels of the Red Sox minor league system, he primarily played second base, though he'd also excelled at shortstop and outfield in high school. Though he was blocked at second by Dustin Pedroia, the Red Sox valued his athleticism and prowess with a bat enough to retrain him as an outfielder rather than shipping him off in a trade.

Betts no longer counts as a Red Sox prospect, or he'd be near the top of all the ratings lists floating around the internet this month. If he even approximates the numbers James has laid out, the Red Sox will be thrilled: at only 21, Betts won't be eligible for arbitration until 2018, and he's under team control through 2021.

Betts' success would probably mean one of the older and more expensive outfielders on the Sox roster being shown the door, but the Red Sox have handled their farm system well, and Betts is just one of a number of young players looking to make a name for themselves this coming season.

Given the fact that he barely flinched at the adjustment to facing major league pitching last autumn, Betts seems like the kind of player to establish his star-power early - and woe to anyone who might stand in his way.

Send Bradley down - for now

Go ahead and add me to the list of people who think that sending Jackie Bradley Jr. down to the minors to start the season is a no-brainer. This post from Boston.com's Extra Bases blog sums up the details nicely, but the short version is that if the Sox keep Bradley at AAA for just eleven days, they get another year of service time out of him before he hits the open market.

Make no mistake, Bradley will go to free agency when he gets the chance - players don't sign on with superagent and evil villain Scott Boras because they're sentimental and looking for "the right fit." No, players sign with Scott Boras because he will get them the most money, and you get the most money by getting to free agency as fast as possible.

On the flip side, it's obviously in the interest of a team to keep their young stars from free agency as long as possible. While the major league minimum salary is eye-popping to the average American at just under half a million dollars, it's chump change to owners who hand out salaries six times that for mid-level relief pitchers and bench players - and it allows them to give big deals to players with more service time.

Sending Bradley down to the minors (here's a friendly reminder - he has played exactly zero games for Pawtucket) for less than two weeks allows the Red Sox to hang on to him for an extra year. If Bradley is as incredible a player as he appears, trading eleven measly days in April of what is expected to be a bridge year for an entire year of service time down the road is an obvious choice. I fully expect the Red Sox to make the prudent decision regarding service time - it fits their pattern - and when Bradley makes it to the bigs by the the end of April, I'll be first in line to buy his jersey.